Abstract
This study assesses the performance of 37 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating extreme precipitation in Madagascar. In this study, six extreme precipitation indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used, namely consecutive dry days (CDD), heavy precipitation days (R10MM), very heavy precipitation days (R20MM), maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5DAY), extremely wet days (R99P), and simple daily intensity (SDII). The performance of the model was evaluated from 1998 to 2014 against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The results show that most of the models in CMIP6 reasonably reproduce the annual precipitation cycle of the study area. The results also suggested that models from CMIP6 tend to underestimate extreme precipitation indices such as CDD, R20MM, SDII, and R99P. However, for R10MM and RX5DAY, the performance of individual models varies remarkably. By looking at the performance metrics, not a single model consistently performed well. Model performance changes with the reference data, the extreme precipitation indices, and the performance metrics. However, the findings of this study indicate that overall, multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most individual models. The study lays the basis for the analysis and projection of future extreme precipitation in Madagascar but also provides scientific evidence for the choice of models.
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Data availability
The datasets used in the current study are available at the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 (TRMM) can be accessed at https://rb.gy/agn5mh and Global Precipitation Climatology Project is available at https://rb.gy/uvr2vx.
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Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Conceptualization, data collection and analysis, formal analysis, data curation, and writing of original draft were performed by Mirindra Finaritra Rabezanahary Tanteliniaina. Supervision and Conceptualization were performed by Zhai Jun. Writing, review and editing were performed by Mihasina Harinaivo Andrianarimanana. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Rabezanahary Tanteliniaina, M.F., Zhai, J. & Andrianarimanana, M.H. Performance evaluation of CMIP6 in simulating extreme precipitation in Madagascar. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 4089–4100 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04868-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04868-z