Abstract
The frequency of extreme events is increasing on a global scale due to various factors, accounting for natural disasters such as landslides, floods, and droughts. The Heilongjiang province, which is agriculturally important for China, has suffered from several extreme rainfall events in the past as a high-latitude plain region. Analysis of historical rainfall characteristics of the Heilongjiang region helps to understand and predict the behavior of extreme rainfall events and provides a reference for reducing agricultural economic losses. Precipitation data from 1974 to 2017 is selected to estimate whether rainfall series in Heilongjiang obey the Gumbel-Logistic Model. We compared the Gumbel-Logistic Model based on the data length of 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years with the original 44-year data to determine the appropriate data partition length and explore the reasons for errors. Combining the empirical frequency and KS test, this paper concludes that the proposed model is appropriate for the representation of the joint distribution of monthly extreme rainfall and annual rainfall. The proposed model improves the rainfall assessment of these two positively correlated variables in Heilongjiang. Univariate and bivariate return periods and correlation coefficients are derived as the basis for assessing the risk of extreme rainfall. The proposed model obtained from the 5-year data length has the largest error, while the distribution curve is progressively smoother as the data length increases.
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Acknowledgements
Thanks to anonymous reviewers and editors for their useful and careful critiques for improving this research.
Funding
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52239006, 51639007) and Sichuan Science and Technology Program (2023NSFSC0283).
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Yu-Ge Wang: investigation, resources, methodology, formal analysis, writing and editing, visualization.
Jian Kong and Ling Lan: data analysis.
Ling Zhong: writing—review and editing.
Xie-Kang-Wang: conceptualization, writing—review and editing.
Xu-Feng Yan: conceptualization, methodology, writing—review and editing.
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Wang, YG., Kong, J., Lan, L. et al. Assessing the Gumbel-Logistic Model’s performance in modeling long-term rainfall series in a high-latitude plain region. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3891–3905 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04859-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04859-0