Preliminary assessment of historical and future scenarios of Italian Primitivo wine grapes in Apulian climate under different shared socioeconomic pathways

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal variability of some viticultural bioclimatic indices on two Apulian areas vocated to the cultivation of Primitivo variety grapes. Historical and future variations of bioclimatic indices under distinct shared socioeconomic pathways were analyzed over four 20-year time windows, from now until 2100: SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Historically, “Gioia del Colle PDO” (PDO—protected designation of origin), according to Huglin, revealed two sub-areas: HI + 1 “Temperate warm” in the innermost zone of the Murgian arch, HI + 2 “Warm” in the northerly direction, while concerning Night Cold index, the area entirely felt in the CI − 1 “Temperate nights”. Huglin index classified “Primitivo di Manduria PDO” as HI + 2 “Warm”, while Night Cold index classified as CI − 1 “Temperate nights” the innermost areas, and CI − 2 “Warm nights” the coastal area. The Dryness index (DI) classified both PDOs as DI + 1 “Moderately dry”. Future scenarios reveal temperature increases with a general shift towards warmer and less rainy class intervals for both the PDO territories. Variations appear more intense by 2100, in particular regarding DI, which shifted to DI + 2 “Very warm” class on 57.9% of “Gioia del Colle PDO” and 96.8% on “Primitivo di Manduria PDO” area by the 2080–2100. Advances in maturation were estimated in 19 days in “Gioia del Colle PDO” and 14 days for “PDO Primitivo di Manduria” by 2080–2100 under the more optimistic SSP2-4.5, while under the SSP5-8.5, the earliness could reach 42 days and 32 days earlier for “Gioia del Colle PDO” and “Primitivo di Manduria PDO,” respectively.