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Improving flood forecasts capability of Taihang Piedmont basin by optimizing WRF parameter combination and coupling with HEC-HMS

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Abstract

Based on numerical weather prediction model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), a coupling model is constructed in Taihang Piedmont basin. The WRF model parameter scheme combinations composed of microphysics, planetary boundary layers, and cumulus parameterizations suitable for the study area are optimized. In both time and space, we tested the effects of the WRF model by a multi-index evaluation system composed of relative error, root meantime square error, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and critical success index and established this system in two stages. A multi-attribute decision-making model based on Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution and grey correlation degree is proposed to optimize each parameter scheme. Among 18 parameter scheme combinations, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic, Grell-Devinji, Purdue-Lin, Betts-Miller-Janjić, and Single-Moment6 are ideal choices according to the simulation performance in both time and space. Using the unidirectional coupling method, the rolling rainfall forecast results of the WRF model in the 24 h and 48 h forecast periods are input to HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate three typical floods. The coupling simulation results are better than the traditional forecast method, and it prolongs the flood forecast period of the Taihang Piedmont basin.

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The data that support the fundings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to the National Natural Science Foundation of China and all authors for their contributions.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52079086) and State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Intelligent Construction and Operation (Grant No. HESS-2309).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China

    Ting Zhang, Ya Gao, Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng

  2. College of Water Conservancy Engineering, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin, 300384, China

    Ping Yu & Huixin Ma

Authors
  1. Ting Zhang
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  2. Ya Gao
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  3. Ping Yu
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  4. Jianzhu Li
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  5. Ping Feng
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  6. Huixin Ma
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Contributions

Ting Zhang: manuscript writing. Ya Gao: data trend analysis. Ping Yu: material preparation, data collection, and analysis. Jianzhu Li: data collection, and analysis. Ping Feng: supervision and editing. Huixin Ma: data gathering.

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Correspondence to Ping Yu.

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Zhang, T., Gao, Y., Yu, P. et al. Improving flood forecasts capability of Taihang Piedmont basin by optimizing WRF parameter combination and coupling with HEC-HMS. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3647–3665 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04836-7

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