Abstract
This research has mapped the Quaternary equilibrium line altitude (ELA) using White’s and Porter’s methods to reconstruct past and present temperatures using a regression model in the Gharaghom basin located in northeastern Iran. The potential impact of climate change on glaciers was detected by using an artificial neural network. A regression model between temperature and altitude based on available observation data and reconstructed data indicated that the present temperature lapse rate of − 0.41 °C would occur for every hundred meters of increasing altitude in stations. The reconstruction of the past temperature of the Pleistocene revealed an increase of about 10.36–10.5 °C for the mean annual temperature of the current temperature in the basin. The recent ELA rises from the Pleistocene 2236 m and 2200 m a.s.l. according to White and Porter’s methods, respectively. So, considering the present temperature lapse rate and the highest altitude of 3271 m, the maximum Pleistocene ELA depression would be about 800 m due to modern temperature increase of 10.36–10.5 °C compared to the past Pleistocene temperature. Based on the neural network projection model, linear growth in temperature would occur for the next three decades (2021–2051) in the Gharaghom basin. The minimum temperature has been much more affected than the maximum temperature, so global warming has caused an increase in the monthly minimum and maximum temperature in most seasons in different parts of the basin based on trend analysis. The average temperature rise of 0.19 °C for future decades would consequently affect the water resources.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article (and its supplementary information files).
References
Abassi F, Habibi Nokhandan M, Goli Mokhtari L, Malbousi S (2010) Climate change assessment over Iran in the future decades using MAGICC-SCENGEN model. Physical Geography Research Quarterly 42(72). https://jphgr.ut.ac.ir/article_21580.html?lang=en. Accessed Dec 2010
Afshar-Harb A (1994) Geology of Kopet-Dagh. Geol Survey Iran Publ 1:109–124
AlaeeTaleghani M (2012) Geomorphology of Iran Ghoomes publication. Tehran Iran 7:168
Ammar GA, Haidar BY, AlDarwish AQ (2017) An artificial neural network model for monthly precipitation forecasting inhoms station, Syria. Am J Innov Res Appl Sci 4(6):240–246
Ashraf S, Nazemi A, AghaKouchak A (2021) Anthropogenic drought dominates groundwater depletion in Iran. Sci Rep 11(1):9135. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88522-y
Asmerom Y, Baldini JULM, Prufer KM, Polyak VJ, Ridley HE, Aquino VV, Baldini LM, Breitenbakh SFM, Macpherson CG, Kennett DJ (2020) Intertropical convergence zone variability in the Neotropics during the Common Era. Science Advances. 6: eaax3644. https://www.science.org/. Accessed Feb 2020
Dortch JM, Owen LA, Caffee MW (2010) Quaternary glaciation in the Nubra and Shyok valley confluence Northern Ladakh. India Quat Res 74(1):132–144
Doostan R, Alijani B, (2016) Climate change of Iran: a synoptic approach. Journal of Geography and regional development. 13(2 (25)). 21–26. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=549702
Evans Ian S (2006) Allometric development of glacial cirque form: Geological, relief and regional effects on the cirques of Wales. Geomorphology 80(3):245–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.02.013
Hauser M, Orth R, Seneviratne SI, Hirschi M, Lehner I, Sillmann J (2020) European temperature and precipitation extremes projected to a substantially warmer world. Environ Res Lett 15(2):024007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7e
Ghadimi M, Moghbel M, Gholamnia M, Pellikka P (2019) Snow line elevation variability under the effect of climate variations in the Zagros Mountains: case study of Oshtorankooh. Environ Earth Sci 78:348. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8348-3
Ghafoori M, Lashkaripour GR, TarighAzali S (2011) Investigation of the geological and geotechnical characteristics of Daroongar Dam Northeast Iran. Geotech Geol Eng. 29(6):961–975
Ghorbani Shoorestan A, Khosravichenar A, Noormohammadi A (2017) Investigating Quaternary glacial geomorphological evidences at the Northeast Heights of Iran (Case Study: Binalud Mountain Ranges). Quant Geomorphol Res 5(1):1–13
Helali J, Ghaleni MM, Hosseini SA, Asghari A, Mohammadi K (2022) Assessment of machine learning model performance for seasonal precipitation simulation based on teleconnection indices in Iran. Arab J Geosci 15(6):1343. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10640-2
Jafari GH, Hazrati N (2020) Late Quaternary glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) in the mountains of Iran. Arab J Geosci 13(14). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05661-8
Jeihouni E, Mohammadi M, Ghazi B (2021) Response of the Shabestar Plain aquifer to climate-change scenarios through statistical and hybrid soft computing techniques. Groundw Sustain Dev 15:100649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100649
Kim JH, Kim BM, Min SK, Kug JS (2021) Changes in the Asian monsoon system in the CMIP6 MRI-ESM2-0 simulations under different scenarios. Clim Dyn 56(5–6):2127–2148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05525-9
Kumar CP (2012) Climate change and its impact on groundwater resources. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Climate-Change-and-Its-Impact-on-Groundwater-Kumar/ed5664bfaeed477bce607c8109e15932a10785ad
Leavesley GH (1994) Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources — a review. In: Frederick, K.D., Rosenberg, N.J. (eds) Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0207-0_8
Lee, J. R. (2011). Cool Britannia: from Milankovich wobbles to ice ages. Mercian Geologist, 17(4):274–279. United Kingdom
Li Q, Li J, Li J, Zhang Y (2021) Winter monsoon variability over East Asia in the CMIP6 MRI-ESM2-0 simulations: role of the Indian Ocean Dipole. J Clim 34(6):2205–2222. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0270.1
Li J, Ji J, Li B (2002) Quaternary glaciations on the Tibetan Plateau. J Glaciol Geocryol 24(3):219–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(02)00054-X
Masoodian, A. (2012). Iranian climate, Sharia Toos publishing, Mashhad, first printing, Mashhad, p. 288 (In Persian)
Moayeri M, Ramesht MH, Saif A, Yamani M, Jafari GH (2011) The impact of mountainous skirts direction on differences in altitude and ice equilibrium line of Quaternary in Iran. Geogr Environ Plan J Isfahan Univ 40(4):1–12
Moussavi MS, Valadan Zoej MJ, Vaziri F, Sahebi MR, Rezaei Y (2009) A new glacier inventory of Iran. Annals of Glaciology. 50. United Kingdom.53. https://app.amanote.com/note-taking/document/hKg6AnQBKQvf0Bhirotz
Glacier B, Moraine J (2010) Using glacier models to reconstruct climate change over the last 13,000 years. Wellington, Canada
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (2022) GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). Accessed January 13, 2022. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov. Accessed Jan 2022
Pedrami M (1982) Pleistocene and Paleo climate in Iran. Geo l Surv Tehran
Porter SC (2000) Snowline depression in the tropics during the Last Glaciation. Quatern Sci Rev 20(10):1067–1091
Rathjens H, Bieger K, Srinivasan R, Chaubey I (2016) CMhyd user manual. Doc. Prep. Simulated Clim, Change Data Hydrol
Roy AJ, Lachniet MS (2010) Late Quaternary glaciation and equilibrium-line altitudes of the MayanIce Cap, Guatemala. Central Am Quat Res 74(1):1–7
Sharan A, Lal A, Datta B (2023) Evaluating the impacts of climate change and water over-abstraction on groundwater resources in Pacific island country of Tonga. Groundw Sustain Dev 20:100890. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11159-z
Vaghefi SA, Keykhai M, Jahanbakhshi F, Hosseini SM, Zarei R (2019) The future of extreme climate in Iran. Sci Rep 9:1464. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38071-8
Wright J (1983) Late-Pleistocene glaciation and climate around the Junin Plain, central Peruvian highlands. Geogr Ann Ser B 65(1–2):35–43
Yamani M, Shamsipour A, Jafari Aghdam M (2011) Renovation of Pleistocene snow line on Jajroud Basin. Physical Geography Research Quarterly. 43(76). 35–50. https://jphgr.ut.ac.ir/article_23069.html. Accessed Oct 2011
Yesilyurt S, Akçar N, Dogan U, Yavuz V, IvyOchs S, Vockenhuber C, Schlüchter C (2016) Extensive Quaternary glaciations in eastern Turkey. In EGU Gen Assem Conf Abstr 18:1014
Yukimoto S, Koshiro T, Kawai H, Oshima N, Yoshida K, Urakawa S, Tsujino H, Deushi M, Tanaka T, Hosaka M, Yoshimura H, Shindo E, Mizuta R, Ishii M, Obata A, Adachi Y (2019) MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical. Earth System Grid Federation. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6842
Zarrin A, Dadashi-Roudbari AA (2022) Analytical Note: The impact of climate change on heavy rainfall in Iran using CMIP6 bias‐corrected multi‐model ensemble. https://civilica.com/doc/1465797. Accessed Nov 2021
Zarrin A, Dadashi-Roudbari AA (2021) Projected consecutive dry and wet days in Iran based on CMIP6 bias‐corrected multi‐model ensemble. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics. 47(3). 561–578. https://doi.org/10.22059/jesphys.2021.319270.1007295, https://jesphys.ut.ac.ir/article_81514.html. Accessed Nov 2020
Zarrin A, Dadashi Roudbari AA (2020) Projection the long-term outlook Iran future temperature based on the output of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 46(3). 583–602. https://doi.org/10.22059/jesphys.2020.304870.1007226. https://jesphys.ut.ac.ir/article_77988_0.html
Zeydalinejad, N., & Nassery, H. R. (2023). A review on the climate-induced depletion of Iran’s aquifers. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 37(2), 467–490. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02278-z#citeas
Acknowledgements
This research was done as a master’s thesis project at Shahid Beheshti University. We thank the Iranian Meteorological Organization and National Cartographic Center in Iran for providing the data and Dr. AbbasAli Dadashi Roudbari for the useful comments to provide in Figure 18.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Tayebeh Akbari Azirani and Hossein Gorbani. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Tayebeh Akbari Azirani and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Azirani, T.A., Ghorbani, H. The impact of climate change on Quaternary glaciers of Gharaghom Basin in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 1429–1450 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04701-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04701-z