Abstract
Expected changes in climate variables, such as precipitation and temperature, can change the hydrological regime, impacting water availability in already stressed watersheds. The predictions indicate annual surface temperature increase trends in the Cerrado region. Climate models are essential tools in predicting future climate. To increase the degree of confidence in the projections of these climate models, it is necessary to understand the performance of the models and identify and correct the biases observed in the climate variables simulated by them. This study aimed to evaluate global climate models nested with regional climate models in the simulation of precipitation and average temperature in localities in the Brazilian Cerrado. A comparison of historical data from climate models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES, Eta-MIROC5, Eta-BESM, and Eta-CANESM2) was carried out with data observed at the climatological stations present in the area through statistical metrics. In general, the model with the best statistical fits for precipitation and average temperature in the Cerrado region was Eta-HadGEM2-ES. The Run, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, and Sen’s slope tests demonstrated that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature are expected in the studied locations in the Cerrado region by the end of the 21st century.
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Data availability
The database used in this manuscript is freely available from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) (https://bdmep.inmet.gov.br/#), and climate change projections for South America carried out by the ETA model (PROJETA) (https://projeta.cptec.inpe.br/#/dashboard).
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This study was supported by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA Cerrados), the Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), and the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES—Finance Code 001).
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This study was supported by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA Cerrados), the Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), and the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES—Finance Code 001).
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All authors have relevant contributions to the article. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Fernanda Laurinda Valadares Ferreira. The first version was written by Fernanda Laurinda Valadares Ferreira. Lineu Neiva Rodrigues and Felipe Bernardes Silva reviewed it and significantly contributed to conducting the study. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.
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Ferreira, F.L.V., Rodrigues, L.N. & Silva, F.B. Performance evaluation of climate models in the simulation of precipitation and average temperature in the Brazilian Cerrado. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 845–857 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04665-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04665-0