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Trends of precipitation and temperature extremes over Malawi and Mozambique during the recent decades from models and observations

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Abstract

The study assesses trends of precipitation and temperature extremes over Malawi and Mozambique from 1981 to 2020, based on model data and observations. Decadal precipitation trends during the primary rainfall season were analyzed using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and Climate Research Unit (CRU). The spatial and temporal trends of wet and dry anomalies were examined using Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). NASA’s NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 downscaled data was also analyzed to examine projected temperature trends up to 2050. Clear decadal trends were manifested using monthly and seasonal mean precipitation. Seasonal mean precipitation trends showed consistent decade-to-decade drying over northeastern region (CHIRPS), whereas CRU data show patches of dry conditions across the entire study domain, including southern parts despite increased frequency of tropical cyclones and associated floods during recent decades. The 6–12-month SPEI series also show consistent dry conditions especially over Malawi from 1981, with a peak during 1990–2000. This contrasts with the earlier decades, especially the 1960s which mostly experienced wetter conditions. The decadal differences with reference to 1961–2020 average, using 3-month SPEI, also show consistent drying particularly along the coast of Mozambique. Over Malawi, drier conditions were dominant in the northern region, while the southern region experienced relatively wetter conditions. With respect to temperature, the NEX-GDDP historical trends are consistent with CRU from 1981 to 2015. The projected mean temperature trends show consistent increase for all the 4 downscaled CMIP6 models, and for both SSP-245 and SSP-585 scenarios especially in the northern and southern parts of Malawi.

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Data availability

This paper used the following data: ClimateHazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) https://data.chc.ucsb.edu/products/CHIRPS-2.0/; Climate Research Unit (CRU) https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.05/cruts.2103051243.v4.05/; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) https://spei.csic.es/database.html; NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 https://nex-gddp-cmip6.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/index.html

Code availability (software application or custom code)

Not available.

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Funding

The first author was supported by the US National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) (Grant ID: CONS01038) for which we are sincerely grateful.

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  1. Dept. of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, Storrs, USA

    Nellie Amosi & Richard O. Anyah

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  1. Nellie Amosi
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  2. Richard O. Anyah
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The first author, Nellie Amosi, did all the analyses, initial drafting of the paper, edited, and contributed to writing of the final version. Second author, Richard Anyah guided the analyses, reviewed, edited, and contributed to writing the final version. Both authors responded to the reviewers’ comments.

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Correspondence to Nellie Amosi.

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Amosi, N., Anyah, R.O. Trends of precipitation and temperature extremes over Malawi and Mozambique during the recent decades from models and observations. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 783–804 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04659-y

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