Abstract
Floods, droughts, and heat waves are becoming more common in Ethiopia, causing damage to the country's rain-fed agricultural productivity. The objective of the study was to investigate the patterns and variability of extreme agroclimatic indicators in the Jimma zone. Raw data of daily rainfall temperatures from ten weather stations recorded between 1991 and 2020 were processed using the Climate Impact version 2 (ClimPact2) tool to extract extreme agroclimatic indicators. A regression model and descriptive statistics were used to examine the spatial and time-series patterns of the 12 significant extreme agroclimatic indicators that were selected from a total of 27. The geographical distribution of the variables was interpolated using inverse distance weighted (IDW) in ArcMap. The results show that the coefficient of variation for the number of consecutive dry days and the number of days with heavy rain, very heavy rain, and extremely heavy rain is greater than 30%. The annual mean number of consecutive dry days was 35 days per year, with a 44% coefficient of variation. The minimum and maximum values of the indicators were recorded at Gera (11 days per year) and Omo-Nada (77 days per year), respectively. The total annual average rainfall was extremely heavy (248.28 mm) and very heavy (59.80 mm), with very high coefficients of variation of 45 and 62%, respectively. The eastern portion of the research area was impacted mostly by the coldest day temperatures, the warmest day temperatures, and consecutive dry days. The number of cool nights and cool days both dropped significantly at all stations, while the number of warm nights, cold (TXn), and warm (TXx) daytime temperatures over the study area. There is no dispute regarding the socioeconomic effects of climate variability and change, which are increasingly being detected to harm residents because of a significant increase in agroclimatic extreme events. It is suggested that studies on the impacts of agroclimatic indicators on agriculture be conducted.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are openly available, except for observed data collected from the Ethiopian National Meteorology Service Agency. The authors have no authority to openly distribute the observed data.
Code availability
Not applicable.
References
Abbasnia M, Toros H (2016) Future changes in maximum temperature using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) at selected stations of Iran. Model Earth Syst Environ 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0112-z
Akande A, Costa AC, Mateu J, Henriques R (2017) Geospatial Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Nigeria (1985–2015) Using Self-Organizing Maps. Adv Meteorol 2017. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/8576150
Alexander S, Herold N (2016) ClimPACT2: Indices and software
Benti F, Abara M (2019) Trend analyses of temperature and rainfall and their response to global CO2 emission in Masha, Southern Ethiopia. 34(1):67–75
Bolarinwa OA (2015) Principles and methods of validity and reliability testing of questionnaires used in social and health science research. Niger Postgrad Med J 22(4):195. https://doi.org/10.4103/1117-1936.173959
Chalchissa FB, Feyisa GL (2022) Frequency and geospatial vulnerability indices of rainfall and temperature extremes in the Jimma Zone, Ethiopia. Environ Monit Assess 194(3):176
Chen D, Chen HW (2013) Using the Köppen classification to quantify climate variation and change: An example for 1901–2010. Environ Dev 6(1):69–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2013.03.007
Chisanga CB, Phiri E, Chinene VRN (2017) Trends of Extreme Events in Precipitation and Temperature during the 1963 - 2012 Period at Mt. 15(4):1–19. https://doi.org/10.9734/JSRR/2017/34815
Edame GE, Ekpenyong AB, Fonta WM, Ejc D (2011) Climate Change, Food Security and Agricultural Productivity in Africa : Issues and policy directions. Int J Humanit Soc Sci 1(21):205–223
Elias E (2017) Characteristics of Nitisol profiles as affected by land use type and slope class in some Ethiopian highlands. Environ Syst Res 6(1):20. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-017-0097-2
Eshetu G (2018) Climate variability and small-scale farmer adaptation strategy in Setema-Gatira Area of Jimmaa, Southwestern Ethiopia. American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics 4(1):1. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20180401.11
Fazzini M, Bisci C, Billi P (2015 The Climate of Ethiopia. World Geomorphological Landscapes, February 2016, 65–87. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8026-1_3
Funk C, Harrison L, Shukla S, Pomposi C, Galu G, Korecha D, Husak G, Magadzire T, Davenport F, Hillbruner C, Eilerts G, Zaitchik B, Verdin J (2018) Examining the role of unusually warm Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperatures in recent African droughts. Q J R Meteorol Soc 144(August):360–383. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3266
Gebrechorkos SH, Hülsmann S, Bernhofer C (2020) Analysis of climate variability and droughts in East Africa using high- resolution climate data products. Glob Planet Change 186(January):103130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103130
Gedefaw M, Yan D, Wang H, Qin T, Wang K (2019) Analysis of the recent trends of two climate parameters over two eco-regions of Ethiopia. Water (Switzerland) 11(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010161
Geeraert L, Hulsmans E, Helsen K, Berecha G, Aerts R, Honnay O (2019) Rapid diversity and structure degradation over time through continued coffee cultivation in remnant Ethiopian Afromontane forests. Biol Cons 236(May):8–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.014
Goto Y, Arakaki K, Liu Y, Taniguchi M (2022) Homogeneity tests for one-way models with dependent errors under correlated groups. Test 32(1):163–183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11749-022-00828-9
Hare R (2003) Assessment of knowledge on impacts of climate change - contribution to the specification of the Art. 2 of the UNFCCC. Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen
Hatfield JL, Prueger JH (2015) Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development. Weather Clim Extrem 10:4–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001
Hatfield JL, Antle J, Garrett KA, Izaurralde RC, Mader T, Marshall E, Nearing M, Philip Robertson G, Ziska L (2020) Indicators of climate change in agricultural systems. Clim Change 163(4):1719–1732. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2222-2
Herold N, Ekström M, Kala J, Goldie J, Evans JP (2018) Australian climate extremes in the 21st century according to a regional climate model ensemble: Implications for health and agriculture. Weather Clim Extrem 20(January):54–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.001
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( 2007) Climate change 2007: Synthesis report
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Climate change 2014. Synthesis report. Versión inglés. In Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324
Jedlička K, Valeš J, Hájek P, Kepka M, Pitoňák M (2021) Calculation of agro-climatic factors from global climatic data. Appl Sci (Switzerland) 11(3):1–24. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11031245
Jentsch A, Beierkuhnlein C (2008) Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems. C R Geosci 340(9–10):621–628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2008.07.002
Kang Y, Khan S, Ma X (2009) Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security – A review. Prog Nat Sci 19(12):1665–1674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnsc.2009.08.001
Korecha D, Sorteberg A (2013) Validation of operational seasonal rainfall forecast in Ethiopia. Water Resour Res 49(11):7681–7697
Krkoška E, Harmáčková ZV, Landová L, Pártl A, Vačkář D (2017) Assessing the impact of land use and climate change on regulating ecosystem services in the Czech republic. Czech republic 4129. https://doi.org/10.1002/ehs2.1210
Li Y, Li M, Li C, Liu Z (2020) Optimized maxent model predictions of climate change impacts on the suitable distribution of cunninghamia lanceolata in China. Forests 11(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/f11030302
Lim C-H, Kim D, Shin Y, Lee W-K (2015) Assessment of Drought Severity on Cropland in Korea Peninsula using Normalized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NPEI). J Clim Change Res 6(3):223. https://doi.org/10.15531/ksccr.2015.6.3.223
Little RJA (1992) Regression with missing X’s: A review. J Am Stat Assoc 87(420):1227–1237. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1992.10476282
Luo Z, Sun OJ (2007) Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment. May 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-006-0044-6
MacDougall AH, Beltrami H (2017) Impact of deforestation on subsurface temperature profiles: Implications for the borehole paleoclimate record. Environ Res Lett 12(7). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7394
Mamo S, Berhanu B, Melesse AM (2019) Historical flood events and hydrological extremes in Ethiopia. Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modeling, Adaptation and Mitigation, September 2020. 379–384. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815998-9.00029-4
Mcsweeney C, New M, Lizcano G, Lu X (2010) The UNDP climate change country profiles. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91(2):157–166. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2826.1
Mekonnen K, Melesse AM, Woldesenbet TA (2020) Jo ur l P of. Atmos Res: 105297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105297
Mequanint F, Tesfaye K, Shimeles A, Takele R (2013) Observed trends in climate extremes in Ethiopia. September, 1–2. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4943.9602
Mera GA (2018) Drought and its impacts in Ethiopia. Weather Clim Extrem 22(October):24–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.002
Misra S, Pandey P, Mishra HN (2021) Novel approaches for co-encapsulation of probiotic bacteria with bioactive compounds, their health benefits and functional food product development: A review. Trends Food Sci 109:340–351
Mohamed AA (2017) Food Security Situation in Ethiopia: A Review Study. International J Health Econ Policy 2(311):86–96. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.hep.20170203.11
Mohammed R, Scholz M (2023) Quality control and homogeneity analysis of precipitation time series in the climatic region of Iraq. Atmosphere 14(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020197
Morak S, Hegerl GC, Christidis N (2013) Detectable changes in the frequency of temperature extremes. J Clim 26(5):1561–1574. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00678.1
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Daren Harmel R, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50(3):885–900
Narayanan S, Prasad PVV, Fritz AK, Boyle DL, Gill BS (2015) Impact of high night-time and high daytime temperature stress on winter wheat. J Agron Crop Sci 201(3):206–218. https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12101
Nievola CC, Carvalho CP, Carvalho V, Rodrigues E (2017) Rapid responses of plants to temperature changes. Temperature 4(4):371–405. https://doi.org/10.1080/23328940.2017.1377812
Nobakht HN, Ojagh FS, Dale KY (2019) Risk factors of post-traumatic stress among survivors of the 2017 Iran earthquake: the importance of peritraumatic dissociation. Psychiatry Res 271:702–707
Rahman MA, Kang SC, Nagabhatla N, Macnee R (2017) Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh. Agric Food Secur 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-017-0089-5
Robi DT, Gelalcha BD (2020) Epidemiological investigation of brucellosis in breeding female cattle under the traditional production system of Jimma zone in Ethiopia. Veterinary and Animal Science 9:100117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vas.2020.100117
Sánchez E, Gallardo C, Gaertner MA, Arribas A, Castro M (2004) Future climate extreme events in the Mediterranean simulated by a regional climate model: A first approach. Global Planet Change 44(1–4):163–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.010
Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess CM, Kanae S, Kossin J, Luo Y, Marengo J, Mc Innes K, Rahimi M, Reichstein M, Sorteberg A, Vera C, Zhang X, Rusticucci M, Semenov V, Alexander LV, Allen S, Benito G, … Zwiers FW (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 9781107025, 109–230. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.006
Sivakumar MVK (2018) Climate extremes and impacts on agriculture. Agroclimatology: 621–647. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronmonogr60.2016.0003
Statistical Analysis System, Integrated Infrastructure (2020) JMP 15 Predictive and Specialized Modeling. 516
Tesfamariam, Birhane Gebrehiwot, Berhan Gessesse, and Farid Melgani.(2019) Characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought as a response to climate variability: The case of rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Weather Clim Extrem. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100237
Teshome A, Zhang J (2019). Increase of extreme drought over Ethiopia under climate warming. Adv Meteorol 2019. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/5235429
United States Agency for International Development (2016) Climate Risk Profile Ethiopia. November 2018, 0–6
Varga A (2021) Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture. Acta Hortic Regiotecturae 24(s1):50–57. https://doi.org/10.2478/ahr-2021-0010
World Bank (2021) Climate Risk Country Profile: Ethiopia. 1–32. www.worldbank.org
Yitbarek T, Beyene S, Kibret K (2016) Characterization and Classification of Soils of Abobo Area, Western Ethiopia. 2016
Zeleke TT, Giorgi F, Diro GT, Zaitchik BF (2017) Trend and periodicity of drought over Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 37(13):4733–4748. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5122
Zhang F, Pant D, Logan BE (2011) Long-term performance of activated carbon air cathodes with different diffusion layer porosities in microbial fuel cells. Biosens Bioelectron 30(1):49–55
Zhang W (2022) p-value based statistical significance tests: Concepts, misuses, critiques, solutions and beyond. Computational Ecology and Software 12(3):80–122. www.iaees.orgArticle
Zhao, Qunshan, Elizabeth A. Wentz, and Alan T. Murray (2017) Tree shade coverage optimization in an urban residential environment. Build Environ 115(December):269–280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2017.01.036
Zhu X, Troy TJ (2018) Agriculturally Relevant Climate Extremes and Their Trends in the World’s Major Growing Regions. Earth’s Future 6(4):656–672. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000687
Acknowledgements
We thank Jimma University for providing all of the resources required for the primary authors to complete this study. The Ethiopian National Meteorology Agency supplied the authors with daily rainfall and temperature datasets, which the authors are grateful for.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualization: [Fedhasa Benti Chalchissa, Girma Mamo Gida, Gudina Legese Feyisa and Alemayehu Regassa Tolossa]; Methodology: [Fedhasa Benti Chalchissa, Girma Mamo Gida, Gudina Legese Feyisa]; validation and formal analysis [Fedhasa Benti Chalchissa]; investigation: [Fedhasa Benti Chalchissa, Girma Mamo Gida, Gudina Legese Feyisa and Alemayehu Regassa Tolossa]; writing original draft preparation: [Fedhasa Benti Chalchissa]; writing, reviewing and editing: [Fedhasa Benti Chalchissa, Girma Mamo, Gudina Legese Feyisa and Alemayehu Regassa Tolossa]; supervision: [Girma Mamo Gida, Gudina Legese Feyisa and Alemayehu Regassa Tolossa]; All authors have read and agreed to the submitted version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethical approval
The research system's ethical standards were followed during the conduct of the study. No formal consent was required because the study made use of satellite data. I, the undersigned, give my permission for the publication of personally identifiable information including figures and tables within the text (the "Material"), in the aforementioned Journal and Article.
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Chalchissa, F.B., Diga, G.M., Feyisa, G.L. et al. Geospatial variabilities and trends in extreme agroclimatic indicators in the Jimma Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 229–247 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04630-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04630-x