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Meteorological drought and trend effects on transboundary river basins in Afghanistan

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Abstract

Afghanistan, as a landlocked country located within central and southwestern Asia, has an arid to semi-arid climate. Most of the people are involved in agricultural activities, and a major part of the country’s gross domestic product depends on agriculture, but the country has the lowest water storage capacity. Consecutive periods of drought and rapid snowmelt due to climate change have made it more challenging for suitable water resource management practices. This study investigates the historical meteorological drought characteristics across the whole country by employing the Reconnaissance Drought Index for the period 1979–2019 using data from 55 meteorological stations. Trends in precipitation and temperature are also investigated using the Mann-Kendall’s and the Sen’s slope statistical tests. A four-decadal countrywide drought map is generated. Extreme and severe droughts were observed in 1999 and 2000 across the whole country. Moderate drought events have started to occur with a frequency of 3 to 5 years since 1999. The decadal annual rainfall values in each river basin indicate that rainfall has decreased in the last two decades with a significant decline in 1999-2008. The trends of increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation are indications of rapid climate change in the country, especially in the south, west, and southwest regions. Due to the intensity and frequency of the droughts, river flow rates have decreased; and therefore, there is a need for the upstream and downstream neighboring countries to come to terms with the phenomenon of a new normal in the hydrological cycle and accordingly revise new water sharing treaties.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Izmir Institute of Technology, Gülbahçe Mah, Izmir Urla, 35430, Izmir, Turkey

    Ehsanullah Hayat & Gokmen Tayfur

Authors
  1. Ehsanullah Hayat
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  2. Gokmen Tayfur
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Contributions

All the authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation and data collection and analysis were performed by Ehsanullah Hayat. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Gokmen Tayfur and all the authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All the authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Availability of data and materials

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) of Afghanistan. The data are not publicly available. However, data are available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission from the MEW.

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Correspondence to Gokmen Tayfur.

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Hayat, E., Tayfur, G. Meteorological drought and trend effects on transboundary river basins in Afghanistan. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 1253–1275 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04602-1

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