Abstract
The greenhouse effect continues to cause unparalleled changes in drought conditions in regions like Dukan basin. Even though droughts have been increasing in terms of occurrence and intensification in Iraq, limited studies have been conducted to predict future drought events with their characteristics under different climate forcing scenarios. This study was done in the Dukan basin to evaluate future drought characteristics, namely magnitude, duration, intensity, and frequency, using four climate models from CMIP6 under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) for two distinct periods of 2020–2050 (near future) and 2050–2080 (far future). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data was dynamically downscaled and then bias corrected using a quantile mapping (QM) approach, with the Climatic Research Units (CRU TS4.04) rainfall data as locus. AgriMetSoft SD-GCM tool was used to downscale the station data. Drought characteristics were characterized at a 12-month scale using the runs theory in AgriMetSoft Drought Monitoring and Prediction (DMAP) software. Among the four CMIP6 models used, the BCC_ESM2_0 was accurate (R2 = 0.952, RMSE = 16.4) than the other models in projecting precipitation. The results indicated that drought regimes with magnitudes from − 0.08 to − 1.4 will intensify from 2024 to 2030. The lowest SPI values (\(-0.03\pm -1.42\)) were observed under SSP2.6 D2 and the highest SPI values (\(-1.83\pm -0.72\)) were observed under SSP8.5 D2. Except for SSP2.6 D1, all other scenarios projected frequent drought regimes in the region with high magnitudes and prolonged durations. The findings also showed significant (p < 0.05) temporal variability in precipitation particularly for SSP585 scenarios. Remarkably, the findings of this study provide a basis for the formulation of drought preparedness, risk reduction, and management policies in Iraq.
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Yasir Abduljaleel: conceptualization, methodology, investigation, and writing—original draft; Sylvester Richard Chikabvumbwa: conceptualization, methodology, and review; and Faraz Ul Haq: supervision, data curation, and writing—review and editing.
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Abduljaleel, Y., Chikabvumbwa, S.R. & Haq, F.U. Evaluation and prediction of future droughts with multi-model ensembling of four models under CMIP6 scenarios over Iraq. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 131–142 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04595-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04595-x