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Analysis of climatic trends in climate divisions of Oklahoma, USA

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Abstract

We used monthly climatological datasets from the NOAA US Climate Divisional Database to detect long-term trends (1951–2021) in the nine climate divisions of Oklahoma, USA. We applied Hargreaves-Samani method to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and used 12-month standardized precipitation index to characterize meteorological droughts. Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope non-parametric trend tests were performed to identify significant (p < 0.05) positive and negative trends in maximum, average, and minimum air temperature (Tmax, Tavg, Tmin, respectively), precipitation (P), and ETo on annual and seasonal time scales. Innovative trend analysis and least square regression were used to further support the results. Statistically significant positive trends were observed in annual Tmin in all climate divisions. Statistically significant increasing trends were also observed in Tmin and Tavg on a seasonal scale across different climate divisions whereas significant decreasing trends were observed in summer Tmax. Winter P showed statistically significant increasing trends across Oklahoma. ETo only showed significant decreasing trends in the South Central climate division on an annual basis, and in central and eastern parts of the state during summers. The rate of change in temperature ranged from −0.010 to 0.020 °C/year. The rate of change in P ranged from −0.16 to 3.16 mm/year. while ETo ranged from −0.44 to 0.42 mm/year. These trends have critical implications for agricultural management to cope with potential long-term climate impacts on agricultural production, pests and invasive species, water resources, and soil moisture.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the first author and corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This work was supported in part by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) (Cooperative Agreement number 58-3070-0-004).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Oklahoma State University, 111 Agricultural Hall, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Aseem Singh & Ali Mirchi

  2. Biological Systems Engineering, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583, USA

    Saleh Taghvaeian

  3. Oklahoma Water Resources Center, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Abubakarr Mansaray

  4. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, 371 Agricultural Hall, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Phillip D. Alderman

  5. USDA-ARS Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center, 7207 W Cheyenne St., El Reno, OK, 73036, USA

    Daniel Moriasi

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  1. Aseem Singh
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Aseem Singh under the supervision of Ali Mirchi and Saleh Taghvaeian. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Aseem Singh and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Ali Mirchi.

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Singh, A., Mirchi, A., Taghvaeian, S. et al. Analysis of climatic trends in climate divisions of Oklahoma, USA. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 781–795 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04581-3

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