Abstract
This study investigated future projections of extreme precipitation (PR) over the Korean Peninsula (KP) under global warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C (GWL 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). The bias-corrected large ensemble of the Regional Climate Model (RCM) in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–East Asia Phase 2 was used. Under GWL 1.5 °C, the RCM multi-model ensemble (MME) predicted the extreme PR intensity (RX1day) to increase by 10.14% more than the mean PR of 4.69%. A regional difference was observed in the projection, with a larger increase over the northern KP (NKP) and southern KP (SKP) than central KP. Accordingly, the distribution of extreme PR was expected to shift with the right, and extreme events occurring once every 20 years over the SKP and NKP were expected to change to a reoccurrence of 12.56 years and 10.04 years, respectively. The mechanism of extreme PR was examined for cases from June to September. The expected increase in extreme PR per warming over the SKP and NKP was 5.64% °C−1 and 8.37% °C−1, respectively, which was close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scale (7.7% °C−1). This implies that increased moisture capability from the warming will affect the change in extreme PR. Other possible factors were investigated and the RCM MME predicted vertical instability over East Asia to continue, and moisture flux and convergence around the KP to be intensified. Meanwhile, under GWL 2.0 °C, mean PR and extreme PR were projected to increase more than under GWL 1.5 °C.
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Data availability
The CORDEX-EA Phase 2 analysed the current study are not publicly available because data sharing is under preparation but are available from the authors on reasonable request.
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This work was funded by the Korean Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program “Developing and Assessing Climate Change Scenarios” under Grant (KMA2018-00321).
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The authors confirm the contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: D. H. K., J. U. K. and Y. H. B.; analysis and interpretation of results: D. H. K., J. U. K., Y. H. B. and C. Y. C.; draft manuscript preparation: D. H. K., J. U. K., T. J. K., Y. H. B. and C. Y. C.; data collection: D. H. K., J. U. K., T. J. K, E. C. C., D. H. C., J. B. A. and S. K. M. The first draft of the manuscript was written by D. H. K. and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.
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Kim, DH., Kim, JU., Kim, TJ. et al. Future projection of extreme precipitation over the Korean Peninsula under global warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, using large ensemble of RCMs in CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 521–534 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04570-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04570-6