Abstract
Due to the large climatic and geographical differences, the occurrence time of maximum 1-day precipitation (RM1day) in different zones of the Huaihe River Bain (HRB) is different. In this study, in order to analyze the characteristics of precipitation encounters, we used the mixture of von Mises distributions and Copula functions to analyze the occurrence time distribution, interval time distribution, and joint encounter probability of RM1day in the HRB. We divide the upstream area of HRB into Zone1, the midstream area into Zone2-1 and Zone2-2, and the downstream area into Zone3 and Zone4. The results show that the RM1day of Zone1, Zone2-1, Zone2-2, Zone3, and Zone4 are mainly concentrated on July 13, July 9, July 6, July 19, and July 14, respectively. The probability appearing RM1day of Zone1 first to Zone2-1, Zone1 first to Zone2-2, Zone2-2 first to Zone2-1, and Zone4 first to Zone3 is 50.84%, 40.0%, 49.1%, and 42.4%, respectively. It shows that most of the RM1day occurred in the southern sites of the HRB earlier than the northern sites. Zone1 and Zone2-2, Zone1 and Zone2-1, Zone2-2 and Zone2-1, and Zone4 and Zone3 have the highest encounter probability of RM1day in July, with 0.34%, 0.56%, 0.37%, and 0.42%, respectively. Therefore, we need to pay more focus to the risk of extreme precipitation encounter in July. This study provides an important reference for flood control and anti-logging in the HRB.
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Data availability
The observed precipitation data can be downloaded from CMA (http://data.cma.cn/).
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Codes will be provided upon reasonable request by e-mail to the corresponding author (Xiaohong Chen).
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Acknowledgements
We thank the CMA for providing the original precipitation data.
Funding
This study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC3001000) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U1911204, 51861125203).
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All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Haoyu Jin, Xiaohong Chen, Ruida Zhong, and Moyang Liu. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Haoyu Jin, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Jin, H., Chen, X., Zhong, R. et al. Occurrence time distribution fitting and encounter probability analysis of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 161–177 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04547-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04547-5