Abstract
General circulation models (GCMs) are limited in their representation of regional climates. Thus, the selection and downscaling of the most suitable models for regional/local studies are crucial prior to climate change impact studies. This study addressed the selection and downscaling of GCM models from 100 ensembles each from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP4.5 and SSP8.5) emission scenarios from the CMIP6 archive using an advanced envelop-based selection approach for Northern Nigeria. We used 2021–2050 as the short-term and 2051–2080 as the long-term study periods. The selection approach revealed that CanESM5 models are more skilful in simulating the warm and wet season, while HadGEM3-GC31-LL in the warm and dry season, whereas MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MPI-ESM1-2-LR are skilful in the cold and dry season. Furthermore, we downscaled the three most skilled models from each season and calculated their spatial averages over Northern Nigeria to provide a more precise illustration of the temperature and precipitation patterns. Under the SSP4.5 emission scenario, the ensemble mean of the downscaled and the (raw) GCMs projected about 13% (8–17%) and 20% (11–35%) increase in average annual precipitation during the short-term and long-term periods, respectively. Similarly, for SSP8.5, the models projected about 23% (5–38%) and 41% (29–60%) increase in the average annual precipitation during short-term and long-term periods respectively. For the temperature, under SSP4.5, the GCMs projected a 1.1 °C (0.26–1.6 °C) and 2.5 °C (0.87–4.04 °C) increase in average annual temperature for short-term and long-term periods respectively. Similarly, an increase of 1.2 °C (0.01–1.78 °C) and 2.7 °C (0.01–4.3 °C) is projected for SSP8.5 during the short-term and long-term periods respectively. These findings can be used for climate impact studies in the region.
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The authors would like to acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), NCEP DOE, ERA5, and ERA-1 reanalysis for archiving and accessing their dataset.
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Wada Idris Muhammad contributed to conceptualization, data curation, conducted formal analysis, methodology, coding, investigation, simulation of datasets, results, visualisation, writing the original manuscript, review, and editing. Haruna Shehu Usman contributed to the simulation of data sets, revision, and edited the manuscript. Amechi S. Nwankwegu, Makhai Nwunuji Usman, and Selamawit Haftu Gebresellase contributed to review, editing, and curation.
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Wada, I.M., Usman, H.S., Nwankwegu, A.S. et al. Selection and downscaling of CMIP6 climate models in Northern Nigeria. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 1157–1175 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04534-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04534-w