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Midlatitude surface temperature variability and teleconnection associated with warm and cold phases of El Niño/Southern Oscillation

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Abstract

This study describes a comprehensive investigation of the contiguous US temperature patterns in relation to the warm and cold phases of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a set of empirical and statistical analyses, such as harmonic analysis, annual cycle composites, and cross-correlation analysis. Monthly temperature composites for the first harmonic, covering 24-month ENSO events, are formed for all climate divisions over the USA spanning up to 29 ENSO episodes. From the harmonic vectorial maps plotted on the study area, each vector reveals both intensity and temporal phase of the ENSO-related temperature teleconnection, and the corresponding candidate and core regions are determined using a machine learning technique of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based on the magnitude and temporal phase of climate signal and Köppen climate classification. As a result of vectorial mapping, four core regions were designated as North-West/Central region (NWC), South-West region (SW), South-East region (SE), and North-East region (NE). During fall (0) to spring ( +) seasons, the results of this analysis show positive (negative) temperature response to the El Niño events at the NWC region (SW, SE, and NE regions), while the opposite patterns are detected for the cold phase of ENSO. The temporal consistency values were 0.66 to 0.83 (0.77 to 0.86), and spatial coherence values ranged from 0.93 to 0.99 (0.95 to 0.99) for the El Niño (La Niña) events. Comparative analyses of temperature responses to both warm and cold ENSO events reveal the high significance level of the ENSO-temperature correlation with an opposite tendency in monthly temperature anomalies. Below normal temperature, anomalies during the El Niño thermal forcing are more significant than above normal temperature departures during the La Niña events. Consequently, middle-latitude temperature responses to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena are detectable over the contiguous USA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Engineering, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg, SC, USA

    Jai Hong Lee

  2. Department of Civil-Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA

    Pierre Y. Julien

  3. South Carolina Lexington H. School, Lexington, SC, USA

    Seungho Lee

Authors
  1. Jai Hong Lee
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  2. Pierre Y. Julien
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  3. Seungho Lee
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Contributions

JL performed conceptualization, methodology, software, writing original draft preparation, investigation, and supervision. PJ contributed to conceptualization and validation of data and methodology. SL performed data curation and visualization.

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Correspondence to Jai Hong Lee.

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Lee, J.H., Julien, P.Y. & Lee, S. Midlatitude surface temperature variability and teleconnection associated with warm and cold phases of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 1063–1083 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04528-8

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