Abstract
This study evaluates historical simulation of solar photovoltaic potential (PVpot) during 1989–2008 over China against the ERA5 reanalysis, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-East Asia second phase (CORDEX-EA-II). The impacts of spectral nudging technique and land surface model on the simulated PVpot are investigated as well. Results indicate that the observed PVpot is abundant over western China, which can reach up to 26% in summer particularly. The WRF simulations significantly overestimate the PVpot over most areas of China, with the bias about 9% over southeastern China, while the utilization of spectral nudging method and CLM4 land surface model can greatly reduce the deviation. The RegCM4 simulations generate underestimation of PVpot over Northwest China and overestimation over Southeast China. As for the interannual variation, the observed PVpot features an increase of 0.9%/decade over southeastern China. The WRF and RegCM4 simulations can reproduce the rising trend of PVpot, while the magnitude is much lower than ERA5. The WRF simulations can properly portray the characteristics of seasonal cycle of PVpot, with the peaks in May over entire China and most subregions, while RegCM4 exhibits poor skill in reproducing the intra-annual variation. Moreover, the simulated bias in the clear-sky solar radiation (RSDSCS), low-level cloud fraction, and light rain during the daylight may contribute to the deficiency of PVpot.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim and ERA5 are available in ECMWF, https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/. All data and RCM simulations used in this study can be accessed by contacting Jianping Tang (jptang@nju.edu.cn).
Code availability
All figures were drawn by NCL.
References
Bastin S, Chiriaco M, Drobinski P (2018) Control of radiation and evaporation on temperature variability in a WRF regional climate simulation: comparison with colocated long term ground based observations near Paris. Climate Dy 51:985–1003
Bichet A, Hingray B, Evin G, Diedhiou A, Kebe CMF, Anquetin S (2019) Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy: analyses from CORDEX-AFRICA climate experiments. Environ Res Lett 14:124039
Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Mon Wea Rev 129(4):569–585
Chen W, Bian D, Yu F (2000) Estimation of solar direct and scattering radiations in a clear sky atmosphere from satellite data. Acta Meteor Sin 4:457–469 (in Chinese)
Chenni R, Makhlouf M, Kerbache T, Bouzid A (2007) A detailed modeling method for photovoltaic cells. Energy 32:1724–1730
Collins WD, Rasch PJ, Boville BA, Hack JJ, McCaa JR, Williamson DL, Kiehl JT, Briegleb B, Bitz C, Lin SJ, Zhang M, Dai Y (2004) Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model (CAM 3.0). NCAR, Boulder, CO
Cossu F, Hocke K (2014) Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the weather research and forecasting model. Geosci Model Dev 7:147–160
Davin EL, Stoeckli R, Jaeger EB, Levis S, Seneviratne SI (2011) COSMO-CLM2: a new version of the COSMO-CLM model coupled to the community land model. Climate Dy 37:1889–1907
Dee DP, Källén E, Simmons A, Haimberger L (2011) Comments on ‘“reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends”.’ Bull. Amer Meteor Soc 92:65–70
Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ, Wilson MF (1993) Biosphere–atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. NCAR, Boulder, CO
Emanuel KA, Živkovic-Rothman M (1999) Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J Atmos Sci 56:1766–1782
Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. Bulletin-WMO 58:175–183
Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F, Mariotti L, Sylla MB, Bi X, Elguindi N, Diro GT, Nair V, Giuliani G, Turuncoglu UU, Cozzini S, Güttler I, O’Brien TA, Tawfik AB, Shalaby A, Zakey AS, Steiner AL, Stordal F, Sloan SC, Brankovic C (2012) RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Climate Res 52(1):577X
Gunwani P, Sati AP, Mohan M, Gupta M (2021) Assessment of physical parameterization schemes in WRF over national capital region of India. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133:399–418
Gutierrez C, Somot S, Nabat P et al (2020) Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols. Environ Res Lett 15:034035
He Y, Wang K, Feng F (2021) Improvement of ERA5 over ERA-Interim in simulating surface incident solar radiation throughout China. J Climate 34(10):3853–3867
Holtslag AA, DeBruijn EI, Pan H (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Weather Rev 118:1561–1575
Hong S, Dudhia J, Chen S (2004) A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 132:103–120
Hong S, Noh Y, Dudhia J (2006) A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon Weather Rev 134:2318–2341
Hou N et al (2020) A new long-term downward surface solar radiation dataset over china from 1958 to 2015. Sensors 20(21):6167
Hui P, Li Y, Chen Y, Zhang L, Wei F, Wang S, Tang J (2019) The impact of radiation parameterization schemes on the regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-EA domain. Atmos Res 224:81–98
Jerez S et al (2015) The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe. Nat Commun 6:10014
Kain JS (2004) The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J Appl Meteorol 43:170–181
Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1998) The national center for atmospheric research community climate model: CCM3. J Clim 11:1131–1149
Lawrence PJ, Chase TN (2007) Representing a MODIS consistent land surface in the community land model (CLM 3.0). J Geophys Res: Biogeosci 112:G01023
Lawrence DM, Oleson KW, Flanner MG, Thornton PE, Swenson SC, Lawrence PJ, Zeng X, Yang Z, Levis S, Sakaguchi K, Bonan GB, Slater AG (2011) Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the community land model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 3(1):M03001
Li D, Feng J, Xu Z, Yin B, Shi H, Qi J (2019) Statistical bias correction for simulated wind speeds over CORDEX-East Asia. Earth Space Sci 6:200–211
Liu P, Tsimpidi AP, Hu Y, Stone B, Russell AG, Nenes A (2012) Differences between downscaling with spectral and grid nudging using WRF. Atmos Chem Phys 12(8):3601–3610
Liu H, Dong L, Yan R et al (2021) Evaluation of near-surface wind speed climatology and long-term trend over chinas mainland region based on ERA5 reanalysis. Clim Environ Res 26(3):299–311 (in Chinese)
Lu N, Yao L, Qin J, Yang K, Wild M and Jiang H (2022) High emission scenario substantially damages China’s photovoltaic potential. Geophys Res Lett 49(20):e2022GL100068
Meng X, Guo J, Han Y (2018) Preliminarily assessment of ERA5 reanalysis data. J Mar Meteorol 38(1):91–99
Pal JS, Small EE, Eltahir EAB (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. J Geophys Res: Atmos 105(D24):29579–29594
Park C et al (2022) What determines future changes in photovoltaic potential over East Asia? Renew Energy 195:1480–1480
Park J, Hwang SO (2017) Impacts of spectral nudging on the simulated surface air temperature in summer compared with the selection of shortwave radiation and land surface model physics parameterization in a high-resolution regional atmospheric model. J Atmos Solar Terr Phys 164:259–267
Perez JC, Gonzalez A, Diaz JP, Exposito FJ, Felipe J (2019) Climate change impact on future photovoltaic resource potential in an orographically complex archipelago, the Canary Islands. Renew Energy 133:749–759
Pyrina M, Hatzianastassiou N, Matsoukas C, Fotiadi A, Papadimas CD, Pavlakis KG, Vardavas I (2015) Cloud effects on the solar and thermal radiation budgets of the Mediterranean basin. Atmos Res 152:14–28
Qi Y, Fang S, Zhou W (2015) Correlative analysis between the changes of surface solar radiation and its relationship with air pollution, as well as meteorological factor in East and West China in recent 50 years. Acta Physica Sinica 64(8):89201–089201 (in Chinese)
Qiu T, Wang L, Lu Y, Zhang M, Qin W, Wang S, Wang L (2022) Potential assessment of photovoltaic power generation in China. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 154:111900
Sawadogo W et al (2021) Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble. Clim Dyn 57:1647–1672
Sawadogo W, Abiodun BJ, Okogbue EC (2020) Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa. Renew Energy 151:263–277
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Duda MG, Huang X, Wang W, Powers JG (2008) A description of the advanced research WRF version 3. NCAR, Boulder, CO
Spero TL, Otte MJ, Bowden JH, Nolte CG (2014) Improving the representation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation using spectral nudging in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. J Gerontol Ser A Biol Med Sci 119:11682–11694
Tang J, Wang S, Niu X, Hui P, Zong P, Wang X (2017) Impact of spectral nudging on regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia using WRF. Clim Dyn 48(7–8):2339–2357
Tang J, Sun X, Hui P, Li Y, Zhang Q, Liu J (2018) Effects of spectral nudging on precipitation extremes and diurnal cycle over CORDEX-East Asia domain. Int J Climatol 38:4903–4923
Tariku TB, Gan TY (2018) Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin. Clim Dyn 50:4231–4247
Teutschbein C, Seibert J (2012) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods. J Hydrol 456:12–29
Thorne PW, Vose RS (2010) Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends: Are they really achievable? Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91:353–362
Tobin I, Greuell W, Jerez S, Ludwig F, Vautard R, van Vliet MTH, Breon FM (2018) Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C warming. Environ Res Lett 13:044024
von Storch H, Langenberg H, Feser F (2000) A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes. Mon Weather Rev 128(10):3664–3673
Wang F, Ding Y (2008) Validation of simulation on surface shortwave radiation over East Asia by global climate models. J Appl Meteorol Sci 19:749–759
Wang F, Ding Y, Xu Y (2007) The effects of radiative parameterization scheme on simulation of cloud and radiation in an AOGCM. J Appl Meteorol Sci 18:257–265
Wang K, Ye H, Chen F, Xiong Y, Wang C (2012) Urbanization effect on the diurnal temperature range: different roles under solar dimming and brightening. J Clim 25:1022–1027
Wu J, Han Z, Yan Y, Gao X (2022) Future projection of solar energy over china based on multi-regional climate model simulations. Earth Space Sci 9:e2021EA002207
Xia X (2010) A closer looking at dimming and brightening in China during 1961–2005. Ann Geophys 28:1121–1132
Xie J, Zhang T, Zhang M et al (2012) Change and reason analysis of ground solar radiation in northeast China over recent 50 years. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica 33(12):2127–2134 (in Chinese)
Yang L (2018) Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models. Global Energy Interconnection 1(04):452–459
Yang L, Wang S, Tang J, Niu X, Fu C (2019) Evaluation of the effects of a multiphysics ensemble on the simulation of an extremely hot summer in 2003 over the CORDEX-EA-II region. Int J Climatol 39:3413–3430
Yu K, Hui P, Zhou W, Tang J (2020) Evaluation of multi-RCM high-resolution hindcast over the CORDEX East Asia Phase II region: Mean, annual cycle and interannual variations. Int J Climatol 40:2134–2152
Yu K, Hui P, Zhou W, Tang J (2021) Evaluation of extreme temperature in multi-RCM simulations over CORDEX-East Asia phase II domain. Atmos Res 255:105535
Zha J, Wu J, Zhao D, Yang Q (2017) Changes of the probabilities in different ranges of near-surface wind speed in China during the period for 1970–2011. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 169:156–167
Zhang Y, Yan D, Wen X et al (2020) Comparative analysis of the meteorological elements simulated by different land surface process schemes in the WRF model in the Yellow River source region. Theor Appl Climatol 139:145–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02955-0
Zhao et al (2020) Impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy potential: a case study of China. Appl Energy 280:115888
Zou J, Xie Z (2012) The effects of the land-surface process parameterization of the RegCM4 on climate simulation in East Asia. Acta Meteor Sin 70:1312–1326
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the editor and reviewers for their insightful suggestions that help improve the manuscript. We also appreciate the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for providing the ERA-Interim reanalysis data to drive the downscaling simulations and the ERA5 reanalysis data used as a reference dataset.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Tongxin Li analyzed data and wrote the main manuscript. Jianping Tang and Zhongjie Zhang supervised and revised the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
We confirm our work is original research and is not under consideration by any other journal.
Consent to participate
The author consented to participate in the research and the finishing of manuscript.
Consent for publication
The author approved the manuscript for publication.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
To be submitted to: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Li, T., Chen, J., Zhao, R. et al. Historical simulation of photovoltaic potential over China within the CORDEX-EA-II framework. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 1203–1219 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04527-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04527-9