Abstract
In the present study, long-term rainfall trend was analyzed using the traditional Mann–Kendall (MK) test and innovative trend analysis (ITA) method for annual and seasonal rainfall series for 20 districts of Punjab state for the period of 1951–2021. The autocorrelation test was performed to detect the presence or absence of serial correlation in the rainfall series. Based on the autocorrelation test, MK or modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope test were applied to determine the direction and magnitude of the rainfall trend, respectively. The ITA which revealed the presence of a trend graphically was compared with the traditional MK/MMK test. The autocorrelation test showed that all the annual rainfall series are serially independent, except for the Hoshiarpur. The MK/MMK test revealed the presence of a decreasing trend in annual rainfall series of all districts, except for Fatehgarh Sahib, Kapurthala, Patiala, and Tarn Taran of the central zone and Muktsar of the south west zone. The computed probable change point year was 1998. The innovative trend slope revealed the presence of a significant decreasing trend for the districts of Punjab missed by the traditional MK/MMK test. The highest decrease (− 4.5 mm/year) in annual rainfall was observed at Gurdaspur of the north zone and Faridkot of the south west zone. The ITA showed the statistically significant decreasing trend in annual rainfall for all the districts of the south west zone at 1% significance level. The analysis using ITA determined the presence of hidden trends missed by the traditional MK/MMK test. The decreasing pattern in rainfall over most of the districts and high irrigation requirement for largely growing paddy crop of Punjab indicated the urgent need of efficient planning of water resources. The study may guide planners and policy makers for effective implementation of the rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge strategies to improve the status of water resources in the entire Punjab.
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Data availability
The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author (email: madane@pau.edu) on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, for providing the daily rainfall time series data for this study.
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Dnyaneshwar Madane: conceptualization, data collection, data analysis, writing introduction, wrote methodology, writing manuscript (Abstract, Results, Discussion, and Conclusion), structural formation, project administration, editing of whole manuscript and visualization, prepared figures and tables.
AbhishekWaghaye: conceptualization, structural formation, data analysis, editing of whole manuscript and visualization, prepared figures and tables.
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Madane, D.A., Waghaye, A.M. Spatio-temporal variations of rainfall using innovative trend analysis during 1951–2021 in Punjab State, India. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 923–945 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04496-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04496-z