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Analysis of rainfall seasonality in Pernambuco, Brazil

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Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the rainfall regimes of Pernambuco, a northeastern Brazilian state, based on the seasonality indices (the individual, \({SI}_{i}\), and the general, \(\overline{SI}\)) and the replicability index, \(RI\). These indices were derived from monthly rainfall data, recorded between 1953 and 2012, at 125 weather stations. The modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to investigate trends in the \({SI}_{i}\) time series. A regression analysis of \(\overline{{SI}_{i}}\), \(\overline{SI}\), and \(RI\) with the geographical longitude produced a statistically significant linear correlation. The calculated \(\overline{SI}\) index indicates that the mean rainfall regime of the coastal area (Zona da Mata) and the central area (Agreste) of the state can be classified as rather seasonal with a short drier season. The western part (Sertão), in turn, exhibited mean rainfall regime between seasonal and markedly seasonal with a long drier season. Concerning the replicability index, results suggest that Agreste is the region with the least replicable rainfall regime in the state. The analysis of the two 30-year sub-periods shows significant changes in the mean values of \({SI}_{i}\) indicating the shift in rainfall regime toward extreme seasonality with prolonged dry season in the Sertão region and toward more regular with shorter dry periods in Zona da Mata and Agreste region.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the support of the following Brazilian agencies: Fundação de Amparo à Ciência e Tecnologia do Estado de Pernambuco – FACEPE (grants: APQ-0296-5.01/17; APQ-0498-3.07/17 INCT 2014; APQ-0532-5.01/14; APQ-0500-5.01/22), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico – CNPq (grants: INCT 465764/2014-2, 441305/2017-2, 406202/2022-2, 440444/2022-5), and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – CAPES (grant: 88887.136369/2017-00). This work is part of the National Observatory of Water and Carbon Dynamics in the Caatinga Biome – NOWCDCB.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Estatística e Informática, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Rua Dom Manoel de Medeiros S/N, Dois Irmãos, Recife – PE, 52171-900, Brazil

    Lidiane da Silva Araújo, Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva, Borko Stosic & Tatijana Stosic

  2. Departamento de Energia Nuclear, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego 1235, Cidade Universitária, Recife – PE, 50670-901, Brazil

    Rômulo Simões Cezar Menezes

Authors
  1. Lidiane da Silva Araújo
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  2. Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva
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  3. Rômulo Simões Cezar Menezes
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  4. Borko Stosic
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  5. Tatijana Stosic
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Contributions

LSA: investigation, conceptualization, material preparation, formal analysis, and writing – original draft. ASAS: conceptualization, data collection, material preparation, analysis, and writing – review and editing. RSCM: conceptualization, validation, and writing – review and editing. BS: conceptualization, validation, and writing – review and editing. TS: investigation, conceptualization, analysis, supervision, validation, writing – original draft, and writing – review and editing. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Lidiane da Silva Araújo or Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva.

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da Silva Araújo, L., da Silva, A.S.A., Menezes, R.S.C. et al. Analysis of rainfall seasonality in Pernambuco, Brazil. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 137–154 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04462-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04462-9

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