Abstract
Drought has devastating effects, and its frequency has increased due to climate change. Therefore, it is important to specifically identify and evaluate the drought-sensitive areas for taking early measures against drought and controlling its effects. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrological drought of the Orontes River Basin within the borders of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean using streamflow drought index (SDI) method. The historical droughts of the region are examined in three periods: first period (1954–1976), second period (1976–1998), and third period (1998–2020). The return periods of the drought parameters (duration, severity, peak) are evaluated by univariate and bivariate analysis (duration-severity and duration-peak) using copula functions. Among Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard, Joe, and Galambos copulas, the Galambos copula function is found to be the best to represent the drought parameters according to the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). As a result of the study, it is found that all parameters of drought (duration, severity, and peak) are considerably higher in the third period than in other periods. The severity of drought in the region is found to increase significantly in the third period. Moreover, the univariate return periods of the drought parameters and their bivariate return periods calculated using the Galambos copula are compared.
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Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on a reasonable request.
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The authors thank the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works in Turkey for providing the dataset.
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V.G.: conceptualization, coding, and writing the manuscript; Y.A.: performing analysis, interpreting results, and writing the manuscript, O.S.: preparing the graphics, interpreting results, and writing the manuscript; AB: performing analysis, interpreting results, writing the discussion.
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Gumus, V., Avsaroglu, Y., Simsek, O. et al. Evaluating the duration, severity, and peak of hydrological drought using copula. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 1159–1174 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04445-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04445-w