Abstract
It is known that the Hadley circulation (HC) is responsible for the typical wet climate of the tropics and the dry climate of the subtropics. Previous studies have shown that the HC exhibits a poleward expansion of ~ 0.5–1° latitude per decade with significant regional and seasonal variability. Owing to its pivotal role in controlling the climate over tropics and subtropics, it is important to predict the evolution of HC in a future warming scenario from the perspective of formulation of adaptation strategies. In this regard, the current study employs the climate model simulations from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Earth System Model (IITM-ESM) archived in the latest Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to identify the long-term changes and future projections in the width of the ascending and descending branches of the HC, after validating it against the latest generation ERA5 reanalysis. Results show that the model is able to capture the observed changes in the total width of the HC and its ascending regions. Analysis of trends in the future projection of the width of the HC ascending and descending regions brings out results that are consistent with earlier reports using multi-model simulations archived in CMIP6. The future projections of HC intensity show weakening tendencies in both NH and SH. The trends in the model’s future projection of zonal mean precipitation under two high forcing scenarios show hemispherical asymmetry with SH exhibiting relatively strong trends in both ascending and descending regions of the HC. The results are discussed in the light of the present understanding on HC dynamics. The significance of the present study lies in evaluating IITM-ESM, which is the first model from India to participate in CMIP, using ERA5 reanalysis and discussing the future projections of HC dynamics and its implications on long-term trends in precipitation under high forcing scenarios.
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Data availability
IITM-ESM data is available on public domain from Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/) and ERA5 data from Copernicus Climate Data Store (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/).
Code availability
The MATLAB codes used for calculations and plotting are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to ESGF and LLNL for providing IITM-ESM data from CMIP6. The authors are also thankful to ECMWF for ERA5 reanalysis data. Sneha Susan Mathew is thankful for the support extended by Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and Henry Baker College, Melukavu for this work.
Funding
Sneha Susan Mathew greatfully acknowledges the financial support and research opportunity provided by Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) for her work.
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All the authors participated and contributed equally in the study conception, data analysis, and interpretation of the results, drafting the article and revising it critically, and preparing the final version.
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Mathew, S.S., Kumar, K.K. Hadley circulation dynamics in the IITM-Earth System Model simulations: evaluation and future projections. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 213–226 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04397-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04397-1