Abstract
The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an important component of the South American Monsoon System. It is characterized by a persistent convective band with northwest-southeast orientation extending from tropical South America to Southwestern South Atlantic. The SACZ exhibits remarkable spatial and temporal variability and plays a critical role in regulating precipitation intensity and totals for millions of people living in South America. This study investigates mechanisms explaining persistent SACZ events (longer than 7 days) that often cause floods and landslides. This analysis extends from October 1996 to April 2014. To investigate the potential for subseasonal forecast of these events, this study focuses on mechanisms on intraseasonal timescales (20–90 days). We show that persistent SACZ events are preceded by a semi-stationary midlatitude Rossby wave train over the South Pacific with an equivalent barotropic structure that turns equatorward after crossing subtropical latitudes of South America. One distinctive feature of these events is the intensification of a trough in midlatitudes South Pacific westward of the Chilean coast preceding the events. Moreover, cyclonic persistent anomalies associated with the wave train over the western South Atlantic organize the oceanic SACZ six to 7 days before the events. Concomitantly, a persistent region with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies emerges southward of the SACZ (between 30°S and 50°S) adjacent to the South American coast, likely resulting from the coupling between cyclonic circulation and the oceanic SACZ. Together, these processes strengthen the low-level westerlies on the SACZ equatorward side, causing the continental SACZ to intensify sustained by anomalous cyclonic circulation and enhanced southeastward moisture transport over land. Consequently, convection increases over the continent and the SACZ maintains active for long periods. Although shorter SACZ events (4 days) appear associated with the presence of a midlatitude wave train, their transient nature leads to distinct coupling effects. These observations are relevant for predicting long-lasting SACZ events.
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Data availability
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for making the CFS data sets are at https://rda.ucar.edu/#!lfd?nb=y&b=proj&v=NCEP%20Climate%20Forecast%20System%20Reanalysis. Climate Data Record Program data are available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/outgoing-longwave-radiation-daily/access/. NOAA-Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature data are available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html. Climanalise Bulletin from CPTEC/INPE SACZ cases are available at http://climanalise.cptec.inpe.br/~rclimanl/boletim/. The OMI index was obtained at https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/. The RMM index is available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/.
Code availability
Code is available upon reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank Dr. Luciano Pezzi for the fruitful discussions and Dr. Charles Jones for the important comments, suggestions, and algorithms for the characterization of the MJO cycle. Comments and suggestions from the anonymous reviewers were much appreciated.
Funding
This study was supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) grant number 140710/2018–3. This work constitutes part of the first author’s PhD dissertation at The National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Leila M. V. Carvalho received the National Science Foundation (NSF) AGS 1937899 support.
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Wendell M. B. Fialho: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, validation, writing (original draft), visualization, and supervision. Leila M. V. Carvalho: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, writing, reviewing, editing, and supervision. Manoel A. Gan: formal analysis, writing, review, and editing. Sandro F. Veiga: validation, visualization, and computational support.
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Fialho, W.M.B., Carvalho, L.M.V., Gan, M.A. et al. Mechanisms controlling persistent South Atlantic Convergence Zone events on intraseasonal timescales. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 75–96 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04375-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04375-7