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Change in Temperature Extremes over India Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Targets

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Abstract

With rising global warming levels (GWL), the severity and frequency of temperature extremes have also increased across the globe. The rural and poor population of developing countries may be more vulnerable due to their limited reliable and relevant adaptation and mitigation capacities. In this context, we investigate the change in temperature extremes and associated area and population exposure over India under 1.5 °C and 2 °C world warmings. We also examined the benefits of 0.5 °C less warming on the area and population exposure over India. Temperature extremes were calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 19 CMIP5 models for the RCP 8.5 scenario. We find that almost all of India is warming greater than the global average under both the warming levels. All the temperature extreme indices exhibit a pronounced increase under 2 °C global warming level (GWL) as compared to 1.5 °C GWL. We find a declining severity of extreme cold events and increasing in warm events. We find the largest warming in the western Himalayan region under both GWLs. A 0.5 °C reduction in GWL will not only limit the severity of temperature extremes but also reduce the population exposure by 44% and the area exposure by 50%. The study provides a reliable and inclusive assessment of projected GWL and the benefits of 0.5 °C less warming.

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Data availability

The NEX-GDDP-CMIP5 data is available at https://www.nccs.nasa.gov/services/data-collections/land-based-products/nex-gddp for the global land at 0.25* 0.25 grid and the population data are available at 1/8° resolution for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The Population datasets were downloaded from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Centre (SEDAC) https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/popdynamics-1-km-downscaled-pop-base-year-projection-ssp-2000-2100-rev01/data-download.

Code availability

Available on request.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the NCCS for the NEX-GDDP-CMIP5 datasets and also acknowledge the SEDAC for the high-resolution population datasets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Jammu, India

    Hardeep Kumar Maurya & Nitin Joshi

  2. School of Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, 175005, Himachal Pradesh, India

    Deepak Swami

  3. Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences, Pradesh, India

    Shakti Suryavanshi

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  1. Hardeep Kumar Maurya
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  4. Shakti Suryavanshi
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Contributions

Hardeep Kumar Maurya: data curation, investigation, writing.

Nitin Joshi: conceptualization, methodology, and editing.

Deepak Swami and Shakti Suryavanshi: conceptualization, methodology, and editing.

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Correspondence to Nitin Joshi.

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Maurya, H.K., Joshi, N., Swami, D. et al. Change in Temperature Extremes over India Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Targets. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 57–73 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04367-7

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