Abstract
A warming climate cause changes in regional climate and climate extremes. However, understanding how future warming can affect the arid climate and drought in Asia is still unclear. Global warming (GW) impacts on shifts in arid regions and change patterns of drought in the Asia region are investigated using the shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The variations in the arid region are explored under potential GW targets above preindustrial levels (+ 0.66 °C for the reference period and + 1.5 °C, + 2.5 °C, + 3.0 °C for future periods). We examine changes in precipitation and temperature indices related to drought, the drought patterns corresponding to consistent arid zones and arid-wet shifting zones based on GW scenarios. The results indicate that warming climates influence temperature and precipitation, and consequently alter climate distribution toward an expansion of the arid region. Due to shifts in climate zones, arid regions may expand by 2.6% relative to the reference climate in response to 3.0 °C of warming. Changes in precipitation indices contribute to the spatial patterns and magnitude of drought changes. Future drought features induced by meteorological conditions exhibit different behaviors according to arid-wet shifts and drought events. Especially, drought features throughout Asia are likely to be aggravated in terms of both severity and frequency in response to a greater degree of GW, especially in arid regions and regarding extreme droughts. This study provides valuable information on the relationship between regional climate and drought features in a world affected by GW.
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Availability of data and material
The CMIP6 data are available through ESGF's website (https://esgf‐node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/), and some of them are provided by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS/KMA) on their website (http://www.climate.go.kr/home/CCS/contents_2021/35_download.php). The meteorological forcing data used in this study can be found in APHRODITE (http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/english/products.html) and CPC (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/index.html). The datasets generated during and analyzed during the current study can be obtained by emailing the corresponding author or the first author.
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The results were calculated by a program written by authors and the source codes of the programs can be obtained by emailing the corresponding author or the first author.
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This work was supported by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. (No. H22S058000).
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The authors confirm the contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: J.-B. K.; data collection: J.-B. K., S.-H. K.; analysis and interpretation of results: J.-B. K., S.-H. K. and D.-H. B.; draft manuscript preparation: J.-B. K., D.-H. B. The first draft of the manuscript was written by J.-B. K. and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.
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Kim, JB., Kim, SH. & Bae, DH. The impacts of global warming on arid climate and drought features. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 693–708 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04348-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04348-2