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Selection of CMIP6 GCM with projection of climate over the Amu Darya River Basin

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Abstract

The most practical methods to predict climate change are global climate models (GCMs). This research set out to evaluate the ability of 19 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to reproduce the historical precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx, and Tmn) of climate prediction center data for the Amu Darya river basin (ADRB), as well as to project the climate of the basin using the chosen GCMs. The Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric was used to assess the effectiveness of GCMs to simulate the annual geographic variability of Pr, Tmx, and Tmn. A multi-criteria decision-making approach (MCDMA) was used to integrate the KGE values to rank GCMs. The findings showed that AWI-CM-1–1-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR best replicate observed Pr, Tmx, and Tmn in ADRB. Projection of climate employing the selected GCMs indicated an increase in precipitation (9.9–12.4%), Tmx (1.3–4.9 °C), and Tmn (1.3–5.5 °C) in the basin for all the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), particularly for the far future (2060–2099). A significant variation can be seen in Tmx and Tmn over the different climatic zone. However, the intercomparison of selected GCM projected revealed high uncertainty in the projected climate. The projection uncertainty is noticed highest for Tmx. The uncertainty is also noticed higher in the far future and higher SSPs compared to the near future and lower SSPs.

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Data availability

All the data are available in the public domain at the links provided in the texts.

Code availability

The codes used for the processing of data can be provided on request to the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA, USA, and WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) website of Program for Climate Model Diagnosis & Intercomparison (PCMDI) for providing gridded precipitation data through their data portal.

Funding

The authors are grateful to Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) for supporting this research through grant no. Q.J130000.2451.09G07.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Skudia, Johor, Malaysia

    Obaidullah Salehie, Tarmizi bin Ismail & Shamsuddin Shahid

  2. Faculty of Environment, Kabul University, Kabul, Afghanistan

    Obaidullah Salehie

  3. Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), B 2401 Smart Village, Giza, 12577, Egypt

    Mohammed Magdy Hamed

  4. Tropical Map Research Group, Faculty of Built Environment and Surveying, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

    Tze Huey Tam

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  1. Obaidullah Salehie
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Contributions

All the authors contributed to conceptualizing and designing the study. Obaidullah Salehie and Tarmizi bin Ismail gathered data; the programming code was written by Shamsuddin Shahid and Mohammed Magdy Hamed; the initial draft of the paper was prepared by Obaidullah Salehie and Tze Huey Tam; the article was repeatedly revised to generate the final version by Tarmizi bin Ismail and Shamsuddin Shahid.

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Correspondence to Tarmizi bin Ismail.

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Salehie, O., Hamed, M.M., Ismail, T.b. et al. Selection of CMIP6 GCM with projection of climate over the Amu Darya River Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 151, 1185–1203 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04332-w

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