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Future projections of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over East Asia for the carbon neutrality period of 2050-2060

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Abstract

Future climate projections provide vital information for preventing and reducing disaster risks induced by the global warming. However, little attention has been paid to climate change projections oriented towards carbon neutrality. In this study, we address projected changes in daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures as well as diurnal temperature range (DTR) over East Asia for the carbon neutrality period of 2050–2060 under the newly available SSP1-1.9 pathway of sustainable development by using CMIP6 model simulations. CMIP6 multi-model ensemble results show that Tmax and Tmin will significantly increase with varying magnitudes during the carbon neutrality period of 2050–2060 under SSP1-1.9 over the whole East Asia while both upward and downward changes will occur for the DTR. Projected Tmax, Tmin, and DTR changes all exhibit new spatial patterns during 2050–2060 under SSP1-1.9 compared with those over the same period under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Compared to 1995–2014, projected Tmax and Tmin averaged over East Asia during 2050–2060 will significantly warm up by 1.43 ℃ and 1.40 ℃ under SSP1-1.9, while the warming magnitudes are 1.93 ℃ and 2.04 ℃ under SSP2-4.5, and 2.67 ℃ and 2.85 ℃ under SSP5-8.5. Research on carbon neutrality-oriented climate change projections needs to be strengthened for jointly achieving a net-zero future.

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Data availability

The data that support these findings are freely available: The global CO2 emissions data are stored at https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about; the observed Tmax, Tmin, and DTR data are stored at https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.05/. The data from the historical, SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 simulations in CMIP6 are stored at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/.

Code availability

The codes used in this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) which coordinated CMIP6, and the climate modeling groups participating in CMIP6 for making their model outputs available.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606501, 2017YFA0603601). Jingyong Zhang was also supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Jingyong Zhang & Feng Chen

  2. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Jingyong Zhang

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  1. Jingyong Zhang
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  2. Feng Chen
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Jingyong Zhang conceived and designed the research. Feng Chen performed the analysis and prepared figures. Jingyong Zhang wrote the manuscript with contribution from Feng Chen.

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Correspondence to Jingyong Zhang.

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Zhang, J., Chen, F. Future projections of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over East Asia for the carbon neutrality period of 2050-2060. Theor Appl Climatol 150, 203–213 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04155-9

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