Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in extreme precipitation in the Wei River Basin of China during 1957–2019 and potential driving factors

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Extreme precipitation poses a severe threat to the natural ecosystem, socioeconomic development, and human life. Investigating the spatiotemporal variations in extreme precipitation and exploring the potential drivers have implications for disaster risk reduction and water resource management. In this study, we analyzed the changes in nine extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) over the Wei River Basin (WRB) during 1957–2019. Furthermore, we assessed the effect of geographic factors (latitude, longitude, and altitude) on the spatial distribution of EPIs and the potential impact of ocean–atmosphere circulation on the temporal variability of EPIs. The results indicate that six EPIs present a downward trend and three EPIs show an upward trend, but all the trends are not significant. In the seasonal scale, max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day) increases significantly in summer (P < 0.05), while the trends in max 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day) are not significant in all seasons. The period of about 8 years and less than 3 years were observed in most EPIs. The mean values of EPIs except consecutive dry days (CDD) gradually increase from northwest to southeast of the WRB. Latitude, longitude, and altitude are important factors affecting the spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) contribute the most to EPIs variation. Interdecadal and interannual oscillations occur between most EPIs and ocean-atmospheric circulation factors, but their phase relationships are different. Our findings highlight the importance of examining global and local driving factors of trend in regional extreme precipitation by a systematic approach, and help to further understand the precipitation changes in the WRB.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The meteorological observations are archived by the China Meteorological Administration. The ocean-atmospheric circulation indicators are provided by the Earth System Research Laboratory of the Physical Sciences Division National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States.

Code availability

The RClimDex software package and the codes for the procedures of CWT and WTC, used in this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

References

  • Alexander LV, Uotila P, Nicholls N (2009) Influence of sea surface temperature variability on global temperature and precipitation extremes. J Geophy Res 114:D18116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2016) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophy Res 111:D05109

    Google Scholar 

  • Basist A, Bell GD, Meentemeyer V (1994) Statistical relationships between topography and precipitation patterns. J Clim 7:1305–1315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang JX, Wang YM, Istanbulluoglu E, Bai T, Huang Q, Yang DW, Huang SZ (2014) Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin, China. Quatern Int 380–381:169–179

    Google Scholar 

  • Croitoru AE, Piticar A, Burada DC (2016) Changes in precipitation extremes in Romania. Quatern Int 415:325–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng HJ, Chen YN, Shi X, Li WH, Wang HJ, Zhang SH, Fang GH (2014) Dynamics oftemperature and precipitation extremes and their spatial variation in the arid region of northwest China. Atmos Res 138:346–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diffenbaugh NS, Singh D, Mankin JS, Horton DE, Swain DL, Touma D, Charland A, Liu Y, Haugen M, Tsiang M (2017) Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 114:4881–4886

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donat MG, Lowry AL, Alexander LV, O’Gorman PA, Maher N (2017) More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat Clim Change 7:154–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Du MC, Zhang JY, Yang QL, Wang ZL, Bao ZX, Liu YL, Jin JL, Liu CS, Wang GQ (2020) Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall extremes for the North Anhui Province Plain of China over 1976–2018. Nat Hazards 105:1–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan XH, Wang QX, Wang MB (2012) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes during 1959–2008 in Shanxi, China. Theor Appl Climatol 109:283–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan JJ, Huang Q, Liu DF (2017) Identification of impacts of climate change and direct human activities on streamflow in Weihe River Basin in Northwest China. Int J Agr Biol Eng 10:119–129

    Google Scholar 

  • Feng X, Guo JQ, Sun DY, Cao Y (2018) Climate change characteristics in Weihe River Basin from 1960 to 2015. Arid Land Geogr 41:718–725 ((in Chinese))

    Google Scholar 

  • Fu B (1995) The effects of orography on precipitation. Bound-Lay Meteorol 75:189–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu XS, Yang XQ, Sun XG (2019) Spatial and diurnal variations of summer hourly rainfall over three super city clusters in eastern China and their possible link to the urbanization. J Geophys Res 124:5445–5462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh S, Das D, Kao SC, Ganguly AR (2012) Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatialvariability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nat Clim Change 2:86–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2004) Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Proc Geoph 11:561–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gu XH, Zhang Q, Li JF, Singh VP, Sun P (2019) Impact of urbanization on nonstationarity of annual and seasonal precipitation extremes in China. J Hydrol 575:638–655

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han TT, He SP, Hao X, Wang HJ (2018) Recent interdecadal shift in the relationship between Northeast China’s winter precipitation and the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Clim Dyn 50:1413–1424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu W, Si BC (2013) Soil water prediction based on its scale-specific control using multivariate empirical mode decomposition. Geoderma 193:180–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang SZ, Hou BB, Chang JX, Huang Q, Chen YT (2015) Spatial-temporal change in precipitation patterns based on the cloud model across the Wei River Basin, China. Theo Appl Climatol 120:391–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA.

  • Jevrejeva S, Moore JC, Grinsted A (2003) Influence of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on ice conditions in the Baltic Sea: the wavelet approach. J Geophys Res 108. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003417

  • Jiang RG, Wang YP, Xie JC, Zhao Y, Li FW, Wang XJ (2019) Assessment of extreme precipitation events and their teleconnections to El Nino Southern Oscillation, a case study in the Wei River Basin of China. Atmos Res 218:372–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaufmann RK, Seto KC, Schneider A, Liu ZT, Zhou LM, Wang WL (2007) Climate response to rapid urban growth: evidence of a human-induced precipitation deficit. J Clim 20:2299–2306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1948) Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kenyon J, Hegerl GC (2010) Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes. J Clim 23:6248–6262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiem AS, Franks SW (2001) On the identification of ENSO-induced rainfall and runoff variability: a comparison of methods and indices. Hydrol Sci J 46:715–727

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiem AS, Verdon-Kidd DC (2009) Climatic drivers of Victorian streamflow: is ENSO the dominant influence? Aust J Water Resour 13:17–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Kishtawal CM, Niyogi D, Tewari M, Pielke RA, Shepherd JM (2010) Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India. Int J Climatol 30:1908–1916

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni A, Von Storch H (1995) Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend. Meteorol Z 4:82–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li YG, He DM, Hu JM, Cao J (2015) Variability of extreme precipitation over Yunnan Province, China 1960–2012. Int J Climatol 35:245–258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Meshgi A, Babovic V (2016a) Spatio-temporal variation of wet and dry spell characteristics of tropical precipitation in Singapore and its association with ENSO. Int J Climatol 36:4831–4846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li YY, Chang JX, Wang YM, Jin WT, Guo AJ (2016) Spatiotemporal impacts of climate, land cover change and direct human activities on runoff variations in the Wei River Basin. China Water 8:220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Wang X, Babovic V (2018) Analysis of variability and trends of precipitation extremes in Singapore during 1980–2013. Int J Climatol 38:125–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Zhang K, Gu PR, Feng HT, Yin YF, Wang C, Cheng BC (2020) Changes in precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960–2019 and the association with global warming, ENSO, and local effects. Sci Total Environ 760:144244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang P, Ding YH (2017) The long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation and its link to urbanization effects in Shanghai during 1916–2014. Adv Atmos Sci 34:321–334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Limsakul A, Singhruck P (2016) Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand. Atmos Res 169:301–317

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu SY, Huang SZ, Huang Q, Xie YY, Leng GY, Luan JK, Song XY, Wei X, Li XY (2017) Identification of the non-stationarity of extreme precipitation events and correlations with large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns: a case study in the Wei River Basin, China. J Hydrol 548:184–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma JN, Gao YH (2019) Analysis of annual precipitation and extreme precipitation change in the upper Yellow River Basin in recent 50 years. Plateau Meteorol 38:124–135 ((in Chinese))

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 245–259

  • Mass C, Skalenakis A, Warner M (2011) Extreme precipitation over the west coast of North America: Is there a trend? J Hydrometeorol 12:310–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miao C, Ni J, Borthwick AG (2010) Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River basin, China. Prog Phys Geogr 34:541–561

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mondal A, Mujumdar PP (2015) Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. J Hydrometeorol 521:217–231

    Google Scholar 

  • Morlet J, Arens G, Fourgeau E, Giard D (1982) Wave propagation and sampling theory; Part II, Sampling theory and complex waves. Geophysics 47:222–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nayak S, Dairaku K, Takayabu I, Suzuki-Parker A, Ishizaki NN (2018) Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling. Clim Dyn 51:4385–4401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Panthou G, Vischel T, Lebel T (2014) Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel. Inter J Climatol 34:3998–4006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papalexiou SM, Montanari A (2019) Global and regional increase of precipitation extremes under global warming. Water Resour Res 55:4901–4914

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qiu DX, Wu CX, Mu XM, Zhao GJ, Gao P (2022) Spatial-temporal analysis and prediction of precipitation extremes: a case study in the Weihe River Basin, China. Chin Geogra Sci 32:358–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quan NT, Khoi DN, Hoan NX, Phung NK, Dang TD (2021) Spatiotemporal trend analysis of precipitation extremes in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam during 1980–2017. Inter J Disaster Risk Sci 11(5):131–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rathinasamy M, Agarwal A, Sivakumar B, Marwan N, Kurths J (2019) Wavelet analysis of precipitation extremes over India and teleconnections to climate indices. Stoch Env Res Risk A 33:2053–2069

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santos CACD, Neale CMU, Rao TVR, Silva BBD (2011) Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation over Utah, USA. Inter J Climatol 31:1813–1822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shao YT, Mu XM, He Y, Sun WY, Zhao GJ, Gao P (2019) Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation events at multi-time scales in the Qinling-Daba mountains region, China. Quatern Int 525:89–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheikh MM, Manzoor N, Ashraf J, Adnan M, Collins D, Hameed S, Manton MJ, Ahmed AU (2014) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia. Inter J Climatol 35:1625–1637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Su L, Miao CY, Duan QY, Lei XH, Li H (2019) Multiple-wavelet coherence of world’s large rivers with meteorological factors and ocean signals. J Geophys Res 124:4932–4954

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun WY, Mu XM, Song XY, Wu D, Cheng AF, Qiu B (2016) Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960–2013 under global warming. Atmos Res 168:33–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. B Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verdon DC, Wyatt AM, Kiem AS, Franks SW (2004) Multidecadal variability of rainfall and streamflow: Eastern Australia. Water Resour Res 40:W10201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch H (1995) Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In: von Storch, H., Navarra, A. (Eds.), Analysis of Climate Variability., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

  • Wang BL, Zhang MJ, Wei JL, Wang SJ, Li XF, Li SS, Zhao AF, Li XS, Fan JP (2013) Changes in extreme precipitation over Northeast China, 1960–2011. Quatern Int 298:177–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang LY, Chen SF, Zhu WB, Ren H, Zhang LJ, Zhu LQ (2021) Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation and its potential driving factors in China’s North-South Transition Zone during 1960–2017. Atmos Res 252:105429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Deser C, Yu JY, Dinezio P, Clement A (2017) El Niño and southern oscillation (ENSO): a review. In Coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific (pp. 85–106). Springer, Dordrecht.

  • Ward PJ, Kummu M, Lall U (2016) Flood frequencies and durations and their response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: Global analysis. J Hydrol 539:358–378

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westra S, Fowler HJ, Evans JP, Alexander LV, Berg P, Johnson F, Kendon EJ, Lenderink G, Roberts NM (2014) Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Rev Geophys 52:522–555

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wild M, Grieser J, Schär C (2008) Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land‐based hydrological cycle. Geophys Res Lett 35(17): https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034842.

  • Wu MW, Luo YL, Chen F, Wong WK (2019) Observed link of extreme hourly precipitation changes to urbanization over coastal south China. J Appl Meteorol Clim 58:1799–1819

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Pepin N, Flügel WA, Yan Y, Xu Y, Zhang Y, Huang J (2011) Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961–2003. Clim Dyn 36:2399–2417

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai PM, Zhang XB, Wan H, Pan XH (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang DL (2020) Rapid urbanization and more extreme rainfall events. Sci Bull 65:516–518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Feng Y (2004) RClimDex (1. 0) user manual. Climate Research Branch Environment Canada Downs View,  Ontario

  • Zhang KX, Pan SM, Cao LG, Wang Y, Zhao YF, Zhang W (2014) Spatial distribution and temporal trends in precipitation extremes over the Hengduan Mountains region, China, from 1961 to 2012. Quatern Int 349:346–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xiao MZ, Li JF, Singh VP, Wang ZZ (2014) Topography-based spatial patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: changing properties and causes. J Hydrol 512:229–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Yan D, Wang Y, Lu F, Wu D (2015) Changes in extreme precipitation in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin of China during 1960–2010. Theor Appl Climatol 120:195–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao M, Pitman AJ (2002) The impact of land cover change and increasing carbon dioxide on the extreme and frequency of maximum temperature and convective precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 29:2-1-2–4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao AZ, Zhu XF, Liu XF, Pan YZ (2015) Spatial and temporal variation of precipitaiton in Weihe River Basin from 1965 to 2013. J Nat Resour 30:1896–1909 ((in Chinese))

    Google Scholar 

  • Zou L, Yu JY, Wang FY, Zhang Y (2021) Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their response to atmospheric circulation factors in the Weihe River Basin. Arid Zone Res 38:764–774 ((in Chinese))

    Google Scholar 

  • Zuo DP, Xu ZX, Wu W, Zhao J, Zhao FF (2014) Identification of streamflow response to climate change and human activities in the Wei River Basin, China. Water Resour Manag 28:833–885

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFE0118100-1).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming On the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China

    Dexun Qiu, Xingmin Mu, Guangju Zhao & Peng Gao

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Dexun Qiu, Xingmin Mu, Guangju Zhao & Peng Gao

  3. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming On the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China

    Changxue Wu, Xingmin Mu, Guangju Zhao & Peng Gao

Authors
  1. Dexun Qiu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Changxue Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Xingmin Mu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Guangju Zhao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Peng Gao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Peng Gao: conceptualization, supervision. Dexun Qiu: methodology, software, writing—original draft, visualization. Changxue Wu: writing—original draft, writing-reviewing, and editing, data curation. Xingmin Mu and Guangju Zhao: writing—reviewing. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Xingmin Mu or Peng Gao.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

The authors paid attention to the ethical rules in the study. There is no violation of ethics.

Consent to participate

All the authors admitted that they have contributed to the study.

Consent for publication

If this study is accepted, it can be published in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology journal.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Qiu, D., Wu, C., Mu, X. et al. Changes in extreme precipitation in the Wei River Basin of China during 1957–2019 and potential driving factors. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 915–929 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04101-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04101-9

Search

Navigation