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Climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh based on trend analysis of some extreme temperature indices

Abstract

Extreme temperature is the key indicator of extreme climatic events. The goal of this research was to better understand the long-term trends and shifting behaviors associated with Bangladesh’s record-breaking high temperatures in the country’s atmosphere. Data from 26 Bangladeshi meteorological stations collected between 1981 and 2018 was analyzed with RClimDex. The annual count of warm (cold) spell duration increased, according to the findings (decrease). In the coastal regions, this rising temperature trend is more pronounced. There were longer (shorter) periods of warm (cold) weather in the twentieth century than there were in the previous decade. As a result, the length of warm (cold) spells has become longer since the beginning of the twenty-first century, as compared to the last quarter of the twentieth century. There is little fluctuation in diurnal temperatures, but they are getting smaller and smaller. There is a 13% decrease in the Cold Spell Duration Indicator (CSDI), which indicates that we are in for a long, cold winter. At a rate of 14% per year, the Warm Spell Duration Indicator (WSDI) annual count suggests an extremely hot summer is imminent. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) values decreased by 1.1% year-round, raising the specter of climate extremes like the CSDI and WSD. An increasing (decreasing) trend in indicators of how long hot (cold) weather lasts indicates an increase (decrease) in Bangladesh’s warm atmosphere. As a result, an increase in the number of extreme weather events, particularly along the coasts, should be expected across the country.

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Data availability

All data and materials supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author on request.

Code availability

All those used in the analysis of this study are available from the corresponding author on request.

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Funding

We greatly acknowledge the Agro-Meteorological Information System Development Project (Component C) BARI Part funded by World Bank & Modelling Climate Change Impact on Agriculture and Developing Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Sustaining Agricultural Production in Bangladesh (2nd Phase) Project funded by Krishi Gobeshona Foundation (KGE) for their financial support.

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1 and 2 conceived of the presented idea. 1, 2, and 3 developed the theory and 1 performed the computations. 3, 4, and 5 verified the analytical methods. 4 and 5 encouraged and 2 and 3 supervised the findings of this work. Authors 6 to 15 have collected complied and tabulated all the climatic dataset of different stations. All the authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Istiak Ahmed.

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Ahmed, I., Ishtiaque, S., Zahan, T. et al. Climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh based on trend analysis of some extreme temperature indices. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 831–842 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04079-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04079-4