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Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological parameters in the Jhelum River basin, North Western Himalayas

Abstract

The Jhelum River basin drains the entire Kashmir valley and is susceptible to floods, surrounded Himalayan Mountain range. The trend analysis of hydro-meteorological data is crucial for planning and managing various activities (agriculture, design of hydraulic structures) in the basin. The present study aims to analyze the trends in the annual maximum and annual average discharge, annual maximum, and annual average rainfall for the Jhelum River basin. The trend analysis was performed using the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, Sen’s slope, and innovative trend analysis (ITA) at various hydro-meteorological stations. The outcomes of trend analysis using the ITA test showed non-monotonic trends at multiple stations for different time series data and brought forth more significant data to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological data. Moreover, the overall trend shows a significant decrease in annual average rainfall and discharge, while annual maximum rainfall and discharge revealed a significant increasing trend via ITA. The trend analysis depicts changes in hydro-meteorological data which would be useful for future management of water resources. Moreover, changes in the discharges in the Jhelum River are due to climatic change and anthropogenic activities in the basin.

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Data availability

The data used for this research are available from IMD Pune and the Planning Division of the Irrigation and Flood Control Department Jammu and Kashmir, India. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for this study. Data are available from the authors with the permission of the said departments.

Code availability

Not applicable.

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Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements are due to the Ministry of Human Resources Development (MHRD), Government of India, for providing Doctoral Fellowship; IMD Pune, for providing the meteorological data; the Planning Division of the Irrigation and Flood Control Department Jammu and Kashmir, India, for providing the discharge data of the Jhelum River; and to NIT Srinagar for providing workspace for computational analysis

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Sheikh Umar: data acquisition, trend analysis of hydro-meteorological data, interpretation of the results, manuscript writing, and submission. Mohammad Akbar Lone: conceptualization and supervision. Narendra Kumar Goel: supervision and editing. Mohammad Zakwan: supervision and editing.

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Correspondence to Sheikh Umar.

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Umar, S., Lone, M.A., Goel, N.K. et al. Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological parameters in the Jhelum River basin, North Western Himalayas. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 1417–1428 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04014-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04014-7