Abstract
The purpose of this study is to assess spatial and temporal changes in extreme precipitation events from 1983 to 2017 over different climatic regions of Nigeria. Ground observations of daily precipitation in 17 meteorological stations scattered over the country were methodically analysed. Twelve widely used indices for the assessment of intensity (PRCPTOT, R × 5Days, SDII, R95p, R99p and R95pIndex) and frequency (CWD, CDD, R1mm, R10mm, R20mm and R25mm) of extreme precipitation were adopted. Linear trends were calculated using a least-square-fit approach, while significant trends were identified using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Results revealed general significant (at p < 0.05) downward annual trends in precipitation intensity indices [i.e. total wet day precipitation, (PRCPTOT), daily precipitation (SDII), 5-day maximum precipitation, (R × 5Days), very wet (R95p) and extremely wet days (R99p)], particularly in the Savannah and Sahel regions. The frequency indices [i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD), wet days (R1mm), heavy (R10mm), very heavy (R20mm) and extremely heavy precipitation (R25mm)] increased significantly in the Sahel but decreased in other zones. We established that R1mm decreases with decreasing SDII, while CWD declines with reducing SDII and R95p in the entire country. The study further revealed that Sahel and Savannah zones are highly vulnerable to severe droughts with potential negative implications on food security and water resources. It concluded that recent changes in climate had significantly impacted the extreme precipitation events within and across different climatic regions of Nigeria.
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We are greatly indebted to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Abuja, Nigeria, for providing the station observational datasets used in this study.
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This study was conceptualized by Ogolo EO. Data collection and analyses were done by Matthew OJ. Interpretation, preparation of the manuscript, reading, editing and revision of manuscript for final submission were done by both authors.
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Ogolo, E.O., Matthew, O.J. Spatial and temporal analysis of observed trends in extreme precipitation events in different climatic zones of Nigeria. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 1335–1351 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04006-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04006-7