Abstract
The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the most significant increasing areas for summer precipitation extremes in China. In this paper, the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20day) is selected as a representative variable to explore the probable causes of abnormal changes in summer precipitation extremes in recent decades by using the gridded 0.25° × 0.25° observation dataset of CN05.1, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 with a horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5° and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) V5 with a horizontal resolution of 2.0° × 2.0°. The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon was early (late), and the R20day in summer was more (less) on both interannual and interdecadal scales. In recent decades, the East Asian summer monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon weakened, and the R20day in the GBA increased. When the Eurasian teleconnection pattern is in the positive (negative) phase, positive (negative) height anomalies occur in Mongolia and North Central China, and negative (positive) height anomalies occur in South China, which enhances (weakens) vertical upward movements and the south wind anomaly in the lower troposphere in South China, resulting in strong (weak) humidity and more (less) R20day in the GBA. The influences of the Silk Road teleconnection pattern, East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern, North Pacific decadal oscillation and western Pacific warm pool strength on R20day are only significant on an interdecadal scale. The North Pacific gyre oscillation has significant effects on the interdecadal change and weakly significant effects on the interannual variation of R20day in the GBA. On an interannual scale, the south-north oscillation of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific and Indian Ocean dipole plays a significant role.
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Data availability
The gridded 0.25° × 0.25° observation dataset of CN05.1 is provided by the China Meteorological Administration. Reanalysis data and NOAA_ERSST_V5 data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/db_search. The indices of EASMI, SCSSMO and SCSSMI can be obtained from the website http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/cn/index.htm. NPGO can be downloaded from the website: http://www.o3d.org/npgo/npgo.php. PDOI can be downloaded from the website: https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/.
Code availability
NCAR Command Language (NCL) was used to process the data and plot the figures.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the China Meteorological Administration for the observation dataset of CN05.1 and the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL for reanalysis data, NOAA_ERSST_V5 data and PDO index. The authors thank Dr. E. Di Lorenzo for the NPGO index and the Beijing Climate Centre for the monsoon indices.
Funding
This work was jointly funded by the major projects for talent team introduction of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), China (GML2019ZD0601); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875089); and the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC1502301).
Major projects for talent team introduction of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou),China,GML2019ZD0601,Zhigang Wei,National Natural Science Foundation of China,41875089,Zhigang Wei,National Key R&D Program of China,2017YFC1502301,Zhigang Wei
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Conceptualization: Zhigang Wei. Methodology: Zhigang Wei and Xianru Li. Formal analysis and investigation: Zhigang Wei, Xianru Li, and Li Ma. Writing—original draft preparation: Zhigang Wei and Xianru Li. Writing—review and editing: Zhigang Wei, Xianru Li, and li Ma. Funding acquisition: Zhigang Wei.
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Wei, Z., Li, X. & Ma, L. Probable causes of the abnormal variations in summer precipitation extremes in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in China. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 1069–1084 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03995-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03995-9