Abstract
Iraq is classified as the fifth most vulnerable country in the world to decreased water and food availability, extreme temperatures, and associated health problems. The current study aims to analyze the historical and current climate of Iraq by studying the climatic characteristics of annual, monthly, and seasonal averages of temperature and precipitation for the observed period 1971–2020. The Coupled Global Climate Model (CCSM3) based on the National Center for Atmospheric (NCAR) used to study the changes of temperature and precipitation during the twenty-first century, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which includes the low B1, medium A1B, and high A2 future emission scenarios. During 1971–2020, the results showed that the temperature anomaly increased to +2.1 °C, and precipitation anomaly decreased to −84 mm in 2020, especially in the last decade of the twentieth century, due to drought and increase temperature and climate change consequences. The southern and southwestern regions of Iraq are the most affected by both high temperatures and lack of precipitation. The temperature is projected to increase by 0.4 °C, 1.2 °C, and 2.4 °C for B1, A1B, and A2, respectively, in 2099, while the precipitation is projected to greatest decrease under A1B from 121 mm in 2050 to 104 mm in 2099. Understanding and predicting climate change is vital to clarifying its potential future consequences for society and policy-making, as Iraq is one of the five most vulnerable countries in the world against climate change.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and files
Data will be provided upon request from the corresponding author.
References
Abdaki M, Al-Iraqi A, Faisal RM (2021) Predicting long-term climate changes in Iraq. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci 779:12053. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/779/1/012053
Al-Ansari N 2013 Management of water resources in Iraq: perspectives and prognoses
Al-Delaimy WK (2020) Vulnerable populations and regions: middle east as a case study. Heal. People, Heal. Planet Our Responsib 121–133
Almazroui M (2013) Simulation of present and future climate of Saudi Arabia using a regional climate model ( PRECIS ). Int J Climatol 33:2247–2259. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3721
Awadh SM, Al-Mimar H, Yaseen ZM (2020) Groundwater availability and water demand sustainability over the upper mega aquifers of Arabian Peninsula and west region of Iraq. Environ Dev Sustain
Basha G, Ouarda TBMJ, Marpu PR (2015) Long-term projections of temperature, precipitation and soil moisture using non-stationary oscillation processes over the UAE region. Int J Climatol 35:4606–4618. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4310
Bayatvarkeshi M, Bhagat SK, Mohammadi K et al (2021) Modeling soil temperature using air temperature features in diverse climatic conditions with complementary machine learning models. Comput Electron Agric 185:106158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2021.106158
Bernstein L, Bosch P, Canziani O, et al. (2008) Climate change 2007 synthesis report. Intergovernmental panel on climate change
Bin Luhaim Z, Tan ML, Tangang F et al (2021) Drought variability and characteristics in the muda river basin of malaysia from 1985 to 2019. Atmosphere (Basel). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091210
Bougara H, Hamed KB, Borgemeister C et al (2020) Analyzing Trend and variability of rainfall in the Tafna basin (northwestern Algeria). Atmosphere (Basel) 11:347. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040347
Bruinsma J (2003) World agriculture: towards 2015/2030: an FAO perspective. Earthscan
Bucchignani E, Mercogliano P, Panitz H-J, Montesarchio M (2018) Climate change projections for the Middle East-North Africa domain with COSMO-CLM at different spatial resolutions. Adv Clim Chang Res 9:66–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.01.004
Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Dettinger MD et al (2008) Climate change scenarios for the California region. Clim Change 87:21–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6
Dastorani MT, Poormohammadi S (2016) Mapping of climatic parameters under climate change impacts in Iran. Hydrol Sci J 61:2552–2566. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1131898
Doulabian S, Golian S, Toosi AS, Murphy C (2021) Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for iran using rcp scenarios. J Water Clim Chang. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.114
El Raey M (2010) Impact of sea level rise on the Arab Region. Univ Alexandria Arab Acad Sci Technol Marit
Elnesr MN, Abu-Zreig MM, Alazba AA (2010) Temperature trends and distribution in the arabian peninsula. Am J Environ Sci. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajessp.2010.191.203
Environment. M of H and (2016) Iraq’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC
Feyissa G, Zeleke G, Bewket W, Gebremariam E (2018) Downscaling of future temperature and precipitation extremes in Addis Ababa under climate change. Climate. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030058
Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob Planet Change 100:172–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014
Goosse H, Barriat P-Y, Loutre M-F, Zunz V (2010) Introduction to climate dynamics and climate modeling. Centre de recherche sur la Terre et le climat Georges Lemaître-UCLouvain
Hameed M, Ahmadalipour A, Moradkhani H (2018) Apprehensive drought characteristics over Iraq: results of a multidecadal spatiotemporal assessment. Geosciences 8:58
Hamlaoui-Moulai L, Mesbah M, Souag-Gamane D, Medjerab A (2012) Detecting hydro-climatic change using spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall time series in Western Algeria. Nat Hazards 65:1293–1311. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0411-2
Hao Z, Ju Q, Jiang W, Zhu C (2013) Characteristics and scenarios projection of climate change on the tibetan plateau. Sci World J. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/129793
He Y, Zhang Y (2005) Climate change from 1960 to 2000 in the lancang river valley, China. Mt Res Dev https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025[0341:CCFTIT]2.0.CO;2
Homsi R, Shiru MS, Shahid S et al (2020) Precipitation projection using a CMIP5 GCM ensemble model: a regional investigation of Syria. Eng Appl Comput Fluid Mech 14:90–106
IPCC W (2013) Working group I contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report: climate change 2013: the physical science basis, summary for policymakers. IPCC, UN
Jiang R, Gan TY, Xie J et al (2017) Historical and potential changes of precipitation and temperature of Alberta subjected to climate change impact: 1900–2100. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1664-y
Lelieveld J, Proestos Y, Hadjinicolaou P et al (2016) Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
Li J, Miao C, Wei W, et al. (2021) Evaluation of CMIP6 global climate models for simulating land surface energy and water fluxes during 1979–2014. J Adv Model Earth Syst 13:e2021MS002515
Modarres R, de Paulo Rodrigues da Silva V (2007) Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. J Arid Environ 70:344–355https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.12.024
Muslih KD, Błażejczyk K (2017) The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941–2013. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1915-6
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios
Noor M, Ismail T Bin, Shahid S, et al. (2019) Selection of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for the projection of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in peninsular Malaysia. TheorAppl Climatolhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02874-0
Oleiwi S, Jalal S, Hamed S et al (2018) Precipitation pattern modeling using cross-station perception: regional investigation. Environ Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7898-0
Ozturk T, Ceber ZP, Türkeş M, Kurnaz ML (2015) Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4285
Partal T, Kahya E (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Process 20:2011–2026. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5993
Penghui L, Ewees AA, Beyaztas BH et al (2020) Metaheuristic optimization algorithms hybridized with artificial intelligence model for soil temperature prediction: Novel Model. IEEE Access 8:51884–51904
Qutbudin I, Shiru MS, Sharafati A et al (2019) Seasonal drought pattern changes Due to climate variability: case study in Afghanistan. Water 11:1096. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051096
Robaa E-SM, Al-Barazanji Z (2015) Mann-Kendall trend analysis of surface air temperatures and rainfall in Iraq. Q J Hungarian Meteorol Serv 119:493–514
Salman SA, Shahid S, Afan HA et al (2020) Changes in climatic water availability and crop water demand for Iraq region. Sustainability 12:3437
Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T et al (2017) Unidirectional trends in daily rainfall extremes of Iraq. Theor Appl Climatol 134:1165–1177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2336-x
Sayl KN, Muhammad NS, Yaseen ZM, El-shafie A (2016) Estimation the physical variables of rainwater harvesting system using integrated GIS-based remote sensing approach. Water Resour Manag 30:3299–3313. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1350-6
Sharif M (2015) Analysis of projected temperature changes over Saudi Arabia in the twenty-first century. Arab J Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-1810-y
Tabari H, Marofi S, Aeini A et al (2011) Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran. Agric For Meteorol 151:128–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.09.009
Tanzeeba S, Gan TY (2012) Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin. Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0221-7
UNEP (2017) GEO-6 Regional assessment for west Asia. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. http://www.unep.org/publications
USAID (2019) Fact Sheet – Climate Risk Profile : Iraq (2020) World Population Review, Iraq Population
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the officials in the Environment and Water Directorate/Ministry of Science & Technology in Iraq, to facilitate things related to the completion of the research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Bassim Mohammed Hashim: data curation; formal analysis; methodology; investigation; visualization, writing—original draft, review and editing draft preparation; resources; software.
Ali Al Maliki: investigation; visualization; writing—original draft, review and editing draft preparation; resources.
Esam Abd Alraheem: data curation; formal analysis; visualization; writing—original draft, review and editing draft preparation; resources.
Ahmed Mohammed Sami Al-Janabi: formal analysis; investigation; writing—original draft, review and editing draft preparation.
Bijay Halder: investigation; visualization; writing—original draft, review and editing draft preparation.
Zaher Mundher Yaseen: supervision; conceptualization; project leader; writing—original draft, review and editing draft preparation.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
The manuscript is conducted within the ethical manner advised by the TAAC.
Consent to participate
Not applicable
Consent for publication
The research is scientifically consented to be published.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hashim, B.M., Al Maliki, A., Alraheem, E.A. et al. Temperature and precipitation trend analysis of the Iraq Region under SRES scenarios during the twenty-first century. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 881–898 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03976-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03976-y