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Interannual characteristics of rainfall over Madagascar and its relationship with the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variation

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Abstract

Understanding rainfall variability over a region is essential for economic development since it contributes to managing climate-sensitive sectors. This study assesses the interannual characteristics of rainfall over Madagascar and the possible influence of the Indian Ocean (IO) on rainfall patterns between 1950 and 2018, using monthly rainfall data from the Climatic Research Unit. The singular value decomposition analysis was used to examine the effect of IO’s sea surface temperature (SST) on the rainfall variability, followed by a composite analysis of vertically integrated moisture flux. Overall, both the wet and dry seasons showed a slight decrease in rainfall trends during the past 69 years. During the wet (dry) season, the central and southeastern (western) IO SST were positively correlated with Madagascar’s rainfall. The covariability analysis showed that a positive phase of the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole or Indian Ocean Dipole results in increased rainfall over the northwestern (northern) and southern parts of Madagascar during the wet (dry) season. The composite analysis suggests that enhanced (decreased) rainfall during the wet (dry) years of the wet and dry seasons in Madagascar is linked to a strong moisture convergence (divergence) accompanied by strong easterlies (anticyclonic circulation) over the northwestern (southern) IO. The study findings could drive further studies on other likely factors that impact the country’s rainfall.

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Acknowledgements

The authors greatly appreciate the Madagascar Meteorological Department (La Direction Générale de la Météorologie de Madagascar) for providing the data which was used to validate the CRU rainfall dataset. The four anonymous reviewers are highly appreciated.

Funding

This work was supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFD1002202).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Applied Meteorology, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 21004, China

    Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Zhenghua Hu, Brian Ayugi, Exavery Kisesa Makula, Floribert Vuguziga & Athanase Nkunzimana

  2. Organization of African Academic Doctors, Off Kamiti Road, P.O. Box 25305-00100, Nairobi, Kenya

    Brian Ayugi

  3. Department of Physics, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35063, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    Exavery Kisesa Makula

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  1. Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara
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Randriatsara, H.HR.H., Hu, Z., Ayugi, B. et al. Interannual characteristics of rainfall over Madagascar and its relationship with the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variation. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 349–362 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03950-8

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