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Trend of minimum monthly precipitation for the East Anatolia region in Turkey

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Abstract

In this study, minimum (i.e., outlier or extreme) total monthly rainfall data recorded in the East Anatolia region (EAR) in Turkey were examined. Trend cases of thirteen stations in the EAR were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend and Şen trend tests. The homogeneity test and autocorrelation functions of the data of the stations were considered to comment. The analyses in this study were based on approximately 60-year (1960–2019, except for 17203 (1961–2019), 17285 (1961–2019), and 17204 (1964–2019)) records at thirteen meteorological stations. Drought cases in the previous studies for the EAR were also compared with the trend results of this study. The findings showed that there was no statistically significant trend for twelve stations except for the 17285 according to the MK trend test. Although seven stations (17046, 17201, 17100, 17097, 17199, 17204, and 17165) had a statistically significant upward trend, four stations (17203, 17094, 17285, and 17172) had a statistically significant downward trend according to the Şen trend test. Two stations (17099 and 17096) had no statistically significant trend. In the light of these findings, the statistically significant trends in minimum total monthly rainfall reported above should be considered in water resources management, engineering structures, biological/chemical processes, atmospheric conditions, and social-economic issues.

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank the personnel of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) in Turkey for the data processing and management. As a final point, I sincerely thank the editor, anonymous reviewers, my friends, and my students for their valuable constructive comments and suggestions for this study.

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  1. Engineering-Architectural Faculty, Civil Engineering Department, Yozgat Bozok University, Yozgat, Turkey, 66000

    Murat Ay

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Ay, M. Trend of minimum monthly precipitation for the East Anatolia region in Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 603–615 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03947-3

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