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Effect of climate change on potential distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) in the twenty-first century in Turkey

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Abstract

The rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall are expected to have negative effects on ecosystem services by causing significant shrinkage or shift of forest distribution particularly in Mediterranean basin. In this study, it was aimed to determine the distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) by modelling the current and future potential locations of the habitats. With Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach, we predicted its distribution under current and future conditions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Turkey. Modelling was performed by using eight bioclimatic variables that show significant relationship to the current distribution of oriental beech and were widely used in the literature. The fitted model had high quality (93.5% AUC) and is biological meaningful. The prediction of warmer condition in future showed that the populations on the southern slopes of the North Anatolian Mountains were expected to shrink and that there would be reduction in the populations found in the main distribution area in the Istranca Mountains and the Northern Anatolia, especially in populations in the transition zone of Central Anatolia. Also, oriental beech would lose its isolated-marginal populations in the southeast of Turkey. The results highlight the importance of a genetic conservation programme for beech population in Turkey. Otherwise, the genetic pools seem to extinct under climate change. Furthermore, the paper is intended to provide a starting point for a monitoring of oriental beech at the edge of its distribution, to observe its climatic migration.

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Availability of data and material

The data belongs to the General Directory of Forestry, Turkey. That is why, we are not allowed to distribute the data ourselves, yet, it is available upon request to the General Directoryof Forestry, Turkey. Contactinformation: Republic of Turkey, General Directorate of Forestry Address: Beştepe Mahallesi Sogutozu Caddesi No:8/1 06,560 Yenimahalle/Ankara/TURKEY.

Code availability

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Acknowledgements

We are thankful to General Directorate of Forestry, Turkey, for providing current distribution data of Fagus orientalis in Turkey.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Forestry, Silviculture Department, Kastamonu University, Kastamonu, Turkey

    Sezgin AYAN

  2. Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Çankırı Karatekin University, Çankırı, Turkey

    Ender BUGDAY

  3. Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Bartın University, Bartın, Turkey

    Tugrul VAROL & Halil Barış ÖZEL

  4. Department of Forest Planning/Forest Research/Information Systems, Research Unit Silviculture and Forest Growth, Landesforst Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Schwerin, Germany

    Eric Andreas THURM

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  1. Sezgin AYAN
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Contributions

SA and HBO performed background research and designed the study. EB obtained the data and analysed them by support TV. The modelling results were reviewed by EAT. SA wrote the manuscript. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript. The order of the authors is based on the level of their contribution.

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Correspondence to Sezgin AYAN.

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AYAN, S., BUGDAY, E., VAROL, T. et al. Effect of climate change on potential distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) in the twenty-first century in Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 165–177 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03940-w

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