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Impact of temperature on agricultural drought occurrence under the effects of climate change

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Abstract

The frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean region has increased significantly in recent years, along with a substantial increase in their spatial and temporal extent. These events are associated with high temperatures and low precipitation. Our study presents a vision on the impact of temperature on agricultural drought frequency, severity, and temporal extent under future scenarios over seven vast plains located in the semi-arid region of the Mediterranean basin. A multivariate frequency analysis of both meteorological and agricultural drought characteristics is based using the copula theory. The return periods of past and future drought events are determined using the two drought indices standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. The projected drought events are determined based on climate simulations (monthly precipitations and temperatures) from the RCA4-MPI-ESM-LR model, and the projection period was forced by the two representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results showed that the frequency of drought events is much higher if only precipitation (SPI) is taken into account than if overall climate (precipitation and temperature, SPEI) is considered while their severity and duration are more intense using SPEI. The risk of drought is best estimated by multivariate frequency analysis where the unvaried return periods, considering the duration or severity, underestimate the recurrence of events. Drought events in the plains are likely to be more severe and to last longer, particularly during the hot season (between May and September) between 2021 and 2071 according to the two future scenarios. In addition, agricultural production is threatened by a spring agricultural drought (between February and April) between 2050 and 2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario, which can have serious consequences on agricultural income as well as food security.

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Data availability

The in situ data are extracted from the dataset provided by the National Meteorology Office (ONM) and the National Hydraulic Resources Agency (ANRH) (O.N.M: http://www.meteo.dz/index.php; ANRH: http://www.anrh.dz/). The projected data from RCA4-MPI-ESM-LR are provided from Coordinated Regional climate downscaling Experiment modeling groups over Africa https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/cordex/ (last access: 23 June 2018) (SMHI, 2018).

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the National Agency of Water Resources (ANRH) of Algeria for providing the data on which the reported analyses are based. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Regional Climate the CORDEX-Africa (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment), initiative of the CMIP5 project for the World Climate Research Program. We also thank the Rossby Center for producing and making available their regional atmospheric model, RCA4 output. Lastly, we thank the reviewers for their constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire Génie de l’Eau et de l’Environnement, Ecole Nationale Supérieure d’Hydraulique de Blida, Blida, Algeria

    Senna Bouabdelli, Ayoub Zeroual & Mohamed Meddi

  2. Environmental Sciences Department, University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, QC, Canada

    Ali Assani

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  1. Senna Bouabdelli
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  2. Ayoub Zeroual
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Contributions

B.S, Z.A, and M.M made the conceptualization and design of the work; B.S and Z.A performed the data collection and material preparation and selected the methodology. B.S done the data analysis, wrote the codes and the original draft, and have made the review and editing of the paper. Z.A supervised the work and participated in the writing and editing. A.A and M.M reviewed and edited the paper. A.A revised the language. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Senna Bouabdelli.

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We wish to declare that all ethical practices have been followed in relation to the development, writing, and publication of the article. We declare that no animal experiments have been conducted in this investigation, as well as no experiments with human beings.

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The authors consent regarding publishing their results and details within the article “Impact of temperature on agricultural drought occurrence under the effects of climate change” in the TAAC journal. Signed by all authors as follows: Dr. Senna Bouabdelli; Dr Ayoub Zeroual; Pr. Ali Assani; Pr. Mohamed Meddi.

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Bouabdelli, S., Zeroual, A., Meddi, M. et al. Impact of temperature on agricultural drought occurrence under the effects of climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 191–209 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03935-7

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