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Recent rainfall variability over Rajasthan, India

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Abstract

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the recent rainfall variability by means of daily rainfall data of 33 well-spread stations over dryland ecosystem of Rajasthan in north western India during 1961–2017. For trend analysis, Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and simple linear regression test have been used (at 95% confidence level). The results have shown a high interannual variability in rainfall occurrence varying from 277 mm (in year 2002) to 839 mm (in year 1975) with mean of 583 mm over this dryland ecosystem. Most of the rainfall deficit years have occurred with El-Nino years. The mean annual rainfall has shown a marginal non-significant upward trend over the ecosystem. The station-wise mean annual rainfall has revealed a significant rising trend over Barmer, Churu, Ganganagar, Jaisalmer, and Pratapgarh stations. Interestingly, 3-year running average has shown a cyclic pattern of rainfall over dryland ecosystem under the changing climatic conditions. The spatial pattern has exhibited that the mean annual rainfall decreases from east and south east (more than 850 mm) to west and north west (less than 400 mm), which is mainly associated with the presence of Aravalli Mountains spreading north east to south west in central Rajasthan. Remarkably, majority of stations positioned in western parts of dryland ecosystem have shown increasing rainfall trends, whereas some stations located in eastern parts have recorded a non-significant declining trend. The magnitude of significant rising trend has varied from 5.34 mm/year (Pratapgarh station) to 2.17 mm/year (Jaisalmer station). Also, the frequency of heavy rainfall events has shown a positive trend with significant increasing trends over Bharatpur, Jaisalmer, and Pratapgarh stations, whereas Bundi station has shown significant decreasing trend.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for the critical and constructive comments made by the anonymous reviewer, which really improved the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, 136119, India

    Divya Saini & Omvir Singh

  2. Department of Geography, Government College, Bahu, Jhajjar, 124142, India

    Pankaj Bhardwaj

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  1. Divya Saini
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Contributions

D. Saini analyzed data, did literature review, and drafted the initial manuscript. P. Bhardwaj provided research direction, and assisted in writing and editing of the manuscript. O. Singh took lead in the supervision, guided research direction, and assisted in the writing and editing of the manuscript. The listed authors have made a significant contribution to warrant their being part of authorship and have approved the work.

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Correspondence to Omvir Singh.

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Saini, D., Bhardwaj, P. & Singh, O. Recent rainfall variability over Rajasthan, India. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 363–381 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03904-6

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