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Drought analyses of Eastern Mediterranean, Seyhan, Ceyhan, and Asi Basins by using aggregate drought index (ADI)

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Abstract

Meteorological drought analyses were conducted for Eastern Mediterranean, Seyhan, Ceyhan, and Asi Basins located in the south of Turkey. The gauged data of total precipitation, average temperature, relative humidity, number of sunny days, and number of overcast days, all in monthly steps, obtained from 35 meteorological stations were used as drought indicators. Aggregate drought index (ADI) was used as drought index calculator. Meteorological data series were arranged in accordance with the hydrological years starting on October 1st and ending on September 30th. The ADI results were organized in order to see the variation of the ADI values of the stations from year to year. ADI thresholds were determined individually for all stations. The ADI results obtained by using the principal component analysis (PCA) were presented in form of drought maps by using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. The regional drought frequency analysis by the L-moments method was performed to determine extreme ADI values corresponding to generally referred to specific average return periods. Using both the growth curves yielded by the most suitable probability distributions and the regression equations for the means, the extreme ADI values against these average return periods were computed and presented in tabular forms. According to the outcome of the ADI results, it can be concluded that a severe drought does not prevail over the study area as a whole, but some stations experience extreme droughts locally from time to time because of excessive irrigation water demand.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering Department, Kafkas University, 36100, Kars, Turkey

    Emre Topçu

  2. Civil Engineering Department, Çukurova University, 01330, Adana, Turkey

    Neslihan Seçkin

  3. Civil Engineering Department, Erciyes University, 38039, Kayseri, Turkey

    Neşe Açanal Haktanır

Authors
  1. Emre Topçu
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  2. Neslihan Seçkin
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  3. Neşe Açanal Haktanır
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Contributions

This study was conceived initially by Topçu and all three authors contributed to observational design, instrument deployment and maintenance, data management, and quality control. Most of the initial analysis and drafting of the manuscript were conducted by Topçu. The manuscript and analysis were further honed by all authors, including in the revision stage, and all authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Emre Topçu.

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Topçu, E., Seçkin, N. & Haktanır, N.A. Drought analyses of Eastern Mediterranean, Seyhan, Ceyhan, and Asi Basins by using aggregate drought index (ADI). Theor Appl Climatol 147, 909–924 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03873-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03873-w

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