Abstract
Examining historical variations of hydroclimatic variables can provide crucial information about changes of water resources in a water cycle. In this study, the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods were applied to 56-year precipitation data collected at 8 measuring stations. These stations are located in Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB), which has a significant amount of annual precipitation and hydroelectric potential in Turkey. This study has two objectives: (1) investigating possible changes in the monthly precipitation and (2) comparing the results achieved by a classical (MK) and one of the latest trend analysis methods presented in the literature (IPTA). Based on the results, MK achieved no trend for most of months, while it reached an increasing trend for March at most of the stations. Likewise, IPTA determined an increasing trend for March precipitation. However, an increasing/decreasing trend was obtained by IPTA for most of the months and stations. In other words, comparing the trend analysis results obtained by IPTA and MK indicates a significant discrepancy between the numbers of months with detected trends primarily because the former is relatively more sensitive in trend identification. To be more precise, IPTA and MK determined trends in approximately 81.25% and 12.5% of all months, respectively. Furthermore, the former identified quite the same trends in every month which the latter reported a trend. Moreover, the polygon of the mean and standard deviation graphs developed by IPTA provides a year cycle, which brings about useful information for water utility sectors and decision makers of the study area. Finally, the findings of this study contribute to a large amount of research that attempts to explore spatio-temporal variations of hydroclimatic variables around the globe not only to enhance humans’ knowledge about changes in a water cycle but also assess climate change impacts.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and material
Not applicable.
Code availability
No code.
References
Ahmad I, Tang D, Wang T, Wang M, Wagan B (2015) Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/431860
Akçay F (2018) Trend analysis for the monthly and yearly mean flows of The Eastern Black Sea Basin. Dissertation, Karadeniz Technical University
Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J Climatol 6:661–675. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607
Bartolini G, Grifoni D, Magno R, Torrigiani T, Gozzini B (2018) Changes in temporal distribution of precipitation in a Mediterranean area (Tuscany, Italy) 1955–2013. Int J Climatol 38:1366–1374. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5251
Basistha A, Arya DS, Goel NK (2009) Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 29:555–572. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1706
Bayazıt M (1996). İnşaat mühendisliğinde olasılık yöntemleri. İTÜ İnşaat Fakültesi Matbaası, İstanbul
Beranová R, Kyselý J (2018) Trends of precipitation characteristics in the Czech Republic over 1961–2012, their spatial patterns and links to temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5392
Buishand TA (1982) Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J Hydrol 58:11–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X
Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Mancini M (2011) Trend detection of annual and seasonal rainfall in Calabria (Southern Italy). Int J Climatol 31:44–56. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2055
Cannarozzo M, Noto LV, Viola F (2006) Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts a/b/c 31:1201–1211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2006.03.022
Ceribasi G, Ceyhunlu AI (2020) Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basinin Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method. J Water Clim. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.253
Chen H, Guo S, Xu CY, Singh VP (2007) Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J Hydrol 344:171–184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.06.034
Chen YD, Zhang Q, Lu X, Zhang S, Zhang Z (2011) Precipitation variability (1956–2002) in the Dongjiang River (Zhujiang River basin, China) and associated large-scale circulation. Quatern Int 244:130–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2010.08.013
Cislaghi M, De Michele C, Ghezzi A, Rosso R (2005) Statistical assessment of trends and oscillations in rainfall dynamics: analysis of long daily Italian series. Atmos Res 77:188–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2004.12.014
Cong Z, Zhao J, Yang D, Ni G (2010) Understanding the hydrological trends of river basins in China. J Hydrol 388:350–356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.013
Conrad V, Pollak C (1950) Methods in climatology. Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Çeribaşı G (2019) Analyzing rainfall datas’ of Eastern Black Sea Basin by using Sen Method and trend methods. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology 9: 254–264. https://doi.org/10.21597/jist.439569
Datta P, Das S (2019) Analysis of long-term precipitation changes in West Bengal, India: an approach to detect monotonic trends influenced by autocorrelations. Dyn Atmos Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.101118
Ducre-Rubiatille J, Vincent A, Boulet G (2003) Comparison of techniques for detection of discontinuities in temperature series. Int J Climatol 23:1087–1101. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.924
Duhan D, Pandey A (2013) Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India. Atmos Res 122:136–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.10.010
Fathian F, Morid S, Kahya E (2015) Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin. Iran Theoretical and Applied Climatology 119:443–464. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1120-4
Forootan E (2019) Analysis of trends of hydrologic and climatic variables. Soil and Water Research 14:163–171. https://doi.org/10.17221/154/2018-SWR
Gadedjisso-Tossou A, Adjegan KI, Kablan AKM (2021) Rainfall and temperature trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test and significance for rainfed cereal yields in northern Togo. Sci. https://doi.org/10.3390/sci3010017
Ghiaei F, Kankal M, Anilan T, Yuksek O (2018) Regional intensity–duration–frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis. Theor Appl Climatol 131:245–257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1953-0
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
Karstarlı Ç, Kömürcü Mİ, Akpınar A, Uzlu E, Kankal M, Önsoy H (2011) Doğu Karadeniz Havzasındaki hidroelektrik potansiyelin analizi. https://www.imo.org.tr/resimler/ekutuphane/pdf/16935_09_06.pdf
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London
Klingbjer P, Moberg A (2003) A composite monthly temperature record from Tornedalen in northern Sweden, 1802–2002. Int J Climatol 23:1465–1493. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.946
Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, Thurner K (2009) Streamflow trends inIndiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsur-face drains. J Hydrol 374:171–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.012
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Meshram SG, Kahya E, Meshram C, Ghorbani MA, Ambade B, Mirabbasi R (2020) Long-term temperature trend analysis associated with agriculture crops. Theor Appl Climatol 140:1139–1159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03137-z
Modarres R (2008) Regional frequency distribution type of low flow in North of Iran by L-moments. Water Resour Manage 22:823–841. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9194-8
Niazkar M, Afzali SH (2016) Streamline performance of Excel in stepwise implementation of numerical solutions. Comput Appl Eng Educ 24:555–566. https://doi.org/10.1002/cae.21731
Peterson Thomas C et al (1998) Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: a review. Int J Climatol 18:1493–1517. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981115)18:13%3c1493::AID-JOC329%3e3.0.CO;2-T
Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. J Roy Stat Soc: Ser C (appl Stat) 28:126–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.06.016
Rahman MA, Yunsheng L, Sultana N (2017) Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129:409–424. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0479-4
Sindikubwabo C, Li R, Wang C (2018) Abrupt change in Sahara precipitation and the associated circulation patterns. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2018.82017
Staudt M, Esteban-parra MJ, Castri-Diez Y (2007) Homogenization of long-term monthly Spainish temperature data. Int J Climatol 27:1809–1823. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1493
Şan M, Akçay F, Linh NTT, Kankal M, Pham QB (2021) Innovative and polygonal trend analyses applications for rainfall data in Vietnam. Theoret Appl Climatol 144:809–822. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03574-4
Şen Z (2012) Innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng 17:1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
Şen Z (2014) Trend identification simulation and application. J Hydrol Eng 3:635–642. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811
Şen Z (2017a) Hydrological trend analysis with innovative and over-whitening procedures. Hydrol Sci J 62:294–305. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1222533
Şen Z (2017b) Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoret Appl Climatol 127(3–4):939–947. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x
Şen Z (2017c) In: Innovative trend methodologies in science and engineering. Springer International Publishing, New York City
Şen Z (2018) Crossing trend analysis methodology and application for Turkish rainfall records. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 131:285–293. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1980-x
Şen Z, Şişman E, Dabanli I (2019) Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and applications. J Hydrol 575:202–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.028
Şen Z (2020) Probabilistic innovative trend analysis. International Journal of Global Warming 20:93–105. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2020.105387
Tomozeiu R, Stefan S, Busuioc A (2005) Winter precipitation variability and large-scale circulation patterns in Romainia. Theoret Appl Climatol 81:193–201. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0082-3
Vale RSD, Gomes ACDS, Santana RASD, Tota J, Miller SD, Sousa RAFD (2016) Hydroclimatic variables associated with El Nino and La Nina events at the Curuá-Una hydroelectric reservoir, Central Amazonia. Acta Amazon 46:303–308. https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4392201600083
Von Neumann J (1941) Distribution of the ratio of the mean squaresuccessive difference to the variance. Ann Math Stat 12:367–395. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177731677
Von Storch H, Navarra A (1995) Analysis of climate variability. Springer, New York
Wijngaard JB, Klein Tank AMG, Können GP (2003) Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. Int J Climatol 23:679–692. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.906
Yilmaz M, Tosunoglu F (2019) Trend assessment of annual instantaneous maximum flows in Turkey. Hydrol Sci J 64:820–834. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1608996
Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095
Yüksek Ö, Kankal M, Üçüncü O (2013) Assessment of big floods in the Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey. Environ Monit Assess 185:797–814. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-012-2592-2
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Tuğçe Hırca designed the study, conducted the literature review, checked the calculations, wrote the draft of the paper, prepared the figures, and analyzed the results. Gökçen Eryılmaz Türkkan designed the study, conducted the literature review, conducted the calculations, commented on modifying the results and the text, and made the article within the journal format. Majid Niakar wrote the draft of the paper, conducted the literature review, commented on modifying the results and the text, and helped with conducting the calculations.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Conflict of ınterest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hırca, T., Eryılmaz Türkkan, G. & Niazkar, M. Applications of innovative polygonal trend analyses to precipitation series of Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 147, 651–667 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03837-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03837-0