Abstract
The Hanjiang River is the source of water for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. So a reasonable evaluation on water resources future changes in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) is essential to ensure its water safety. In this study, we firstly evaluated the China meteorological forcing dataset (CMFD), and then used it to measure the applicability of the eight global climate models (GCMs). Finally, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and clustering algorithms were used to analyze the spatial distribution status of precipitation in the HRB. The results showed that the BCC-CSM2-MR model has the best effect, followed by the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. In the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, total precipitation in the HRB all shows an increasing trend. However, the difference in the spatial distribution of precipitation intensified, for the upstream and downstream tended to be wetter, while the middle reaches had less precipitation. In the future climate scenarios, the areas with more precipitation (Class 1) increased significantly, while the areas with medium precipitation (Class 3) decreased significantly, which will enlarge the precipitation difference between regions in the HRB. The increase in the total amount of precipitation, coupled with the increase in the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation, will make the HRB more vulnerable to flooding disasters. Therefore, the water resources management measures in the HRB should be strengthened in the future.
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Data availability
The CMIP6 data was used for the study and downloaded from http://esgf-node.llnl.gov that was freely available for users.
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Acknowledgements
The meteorological data used in this research was supported by CMA, and the GCMs data was supported by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Funding
The research is financially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U1911204, 51861125203), National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0405900), The Project for Creative Research from Guangdong Water Resources Department (Grant No. 2018, 2020).
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Haoyu Jin: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Writing—original draft. Xiaohong Chen: Formal analysis, Conceptualization, Validation, Software, Project administration. Ruida Zhong: Writing-original draft, Writing-review & editing. Pan Wu: Resources, Funding acquisition, Writing—review & editing. Dan Li: Supervision. Haoyu Jin: Data curation. Xiaohong Chen: Writing-review & editing.
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Jin, H., Chen, X., Zhong, R. et al. Spatio-temporal changes of precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin under climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 146, 1441–1458 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03801-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03801-y