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Convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Pakistan and its association with precipitation and temperature

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Abstract

This study presents analyses of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and its association with spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature over sparsely located 45 meteorological stations of Pakistan for the period 1987–2016 on both seasonal and annual time scales. The analyses are performed using various data products viz. monthly precipitation of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), monthly mean gridded temperature of Climate Research Unit (CRU), and CAPE of ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and annual climatology of CAPE, precipitation, and temperature are presented over each PMD station in the form of thematic maps. Our results show that the stations located in the areas of relatively high values of CAPE also receive relatively high temperatures and precipitation amounts generally. Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between CAPE and both precipitation and temperature, and trends of the three parameters at the stations are also presented on both the time scales. Based on identified association of CAPE with precipitation and temperature, and trends of the parameters, 25(7), 10(7), 17(10), 22(4), and 16(10) station have been identified that are likely to receive increased(decreased) amount of precipitation in winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and annually, respectively, in future. Clusters of these stations identify the related regions also.

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Data availability

Reanalysis data that support the findings of this study are available from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/ and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data archives. Observed data used in this study have been obtained on request from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for non-commercial study/research purpose and cannot be shared further; however, PMD may be directly requested.

Code availability

Code required for the study has been prepared in Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS).

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Climate Data Processing Centre (CDPC) Karachi, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for providing monthly precipitation data. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) is acknowledged for providing the Era Interim and Era-20c reanalysis monthly datasets of CAPE. The University of East Anglia, UK Climate Research Unit (CRU) is also acknowledged for providing the monthly temperature datasets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Islamabad, 45550, Pakistan

    Sameen Malik, Rehan Ahmed, Muhammad Latif & Ehsan Haroon

  2. Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, 44000, Pakistan

    Muhammad Azam

  3. Chungbuk National University, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea

    Muhammad Azam

  4. Climate, Energy and Water Research Institute (CEWRI), National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), Islamabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Bilal Iqbal

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  1. Sameen Malik
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  2. Rehan Ahmed
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  3. Muhammad Latif
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  4. Muhammad Azam
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  5. Ehsan Haroon
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Sameen Malik, Rehan Ahmed, Muhammad Latif, Ehsan Haroon, Muhammad Azam, and Muhammad Bilal Iqbal. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Rehan Ahmed, and all authors commented on it for its improvement. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Rehan Ahmed.

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Malik, S., Ahmed, R., Latif, M. et al. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Pakistan and its association with precipitation and temperature. Theor Appl Climatol 146, 191–212 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03709-7

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