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Climate-induced rice yield anomalies linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Bangladesh using multi-statistical modeling

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Abstract

Connecting climate-induced yield anomalies to the key climatic variables (KCVs) and large-scale atmospheric circulation index (LACI) is crucial to developing a strategic policy for food security in developing countries including Bangladesh. However, the effects of the KCVs and LACI on rice yield are still less explored in Bangladesh. This study aims to investigate daily climatic datasets from 18 sites and five LACIs during 1980–2017 to explore climate-induced yield anomalies to the KCVs and LACIs in different sub-zones of Bangladesh using the decoupling model and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). We demarcated four sub-zones (northern, southwestern, south-central, and western) with different climate-induced yield index (CIYI) of winter Boro rice oscillations by employing principal component analysis. The CIYI time series in the northern zone was dominated by a 2–4-year oscillation, whereas the CIYI in the western zone demonstrated a prominent 6.5-year oscillation. Among the four sub-zones, south-central and northern zones had the most notable CIYI-KCV and CIYI-LACI associations, while the potential evapotranspiration (PET) in March and multivariate ENSO indices (MEI) in January were identified as the best yield prediction indicator. Wavelet coherence analysis indicated significant in-phase and out-phase coherences between KCVs and CIYI fluctuations at different time-frequency bands in these sub-zones. The random forest model also confirmed the MEI as the key driver influencing the rice yield fluctuation in Bangladesh. The isotopic signature of rainwater also demonstrated that the temperature variation is the main driver for event-based precipitation change in the south-central rice-growing zone. These outcomes can provide a scientific basis to take adaptive measures to mitigate the reduction in rice yield in western and northern Bangladesh for associated decision-makers and practitioners.

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Data availability

Data are available upon request on the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

We greatly acknowledge the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for proving data for this study. We are also highly thankful to Isotope Hydrology Division, Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh, for sharing experimental dataset in the study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh

    Bonosri Ghose & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

  2. Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur, 1701, Bangladesh

    Mohammad Kamruzzaman

  3. Isotope Hydrology Division, Institute of Nuclear Science & Technology, Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Md. Moniruzzaman

  4. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Zhenghua Hu

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Contributions

A.R.M.T.I. designed, planned, conceptualized, and drafted the original manuscript, and B.G. was involved in statistical analysis and interpretation; M.K. and M.M. contributed in instrumental setup, data analysis, and validation; M.K. and Z.H. contributed to editing the manuscript, literature review, and proofreading; B.G. and A.R.M.T.I. were involved in software, mapping, and proofreading during the manuscript drafting stage.

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Correspondence to Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam.

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Ghose, B., Islam, A.R.M.T., Kamruzzaman, M. et al. Climate-induced rice yield anomalies linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Bangladesh using multi-statistical modeling. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 1077–1099 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03584-2

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