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The effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Kerman, Iran

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Abstract

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is one of the climate indicators likely to be related to human health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relation between mortality and DTR in Kerman, Iran. The DLNM (Distributed Lag Non-linear Model)with a quas/i-Poisson regression model was used to evaluate the effect of DTR on mortality in age and sex groups by controlling the confounding variables (long-term trend of daily mortality, effect of day of the week, holidays, mean temperature, humidity, and air pollution). Since DTR effects on mortality may vary in cold and warm seasons, separate analyses were conducted for cold and warm seasons. DTR showed a non-linear relation with mortality. Mortality increased at the 90th percentile of DTR (CRR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.00–1.34), in lag 0–21 and at the 10th percentile of DTR in lag 0–13 (1.27, 95% CI 1.06–1.52), and lag 0–21 1.35 (95% CI 1.06–1.71). Increased mortality was more observed in the > 60 age group and in men. High levels of DTR after long lags (13 days) in the cold season were associated with increasing mortality. High and low diurnal temperature range may be a risk factor for mortality, especially in the men and elderly.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the country Bureau of Meteorology and the Deputy of Health of Kerman University of Medical Sciences for providing the data for this study.

Funding

This study was financially supported by the Neurology Research Center of Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Neurology Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Samaneh Torkian

  2. Environmental Health Engineering Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Narges Khanjani

  3. Monash Centre for Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

    Narges Khanjani

  4. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Haft Bagh-E-Alavi Highway, PO Box: 7635111167, Kerman, Iran

    Narges Khanjani

  5. Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

    Bahram Bakhtiari

  6. School of Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran

    Rahim Sharafkhani

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  1. Samaneh Torkian
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Correspondence to Narges Khanjani.

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Torkian, S., Khanjani, N., Bakhtiari, B. et al. The effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Kerman, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 1667–1675 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03515-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03515-7

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