Abstract
Increased frequency of droughts in the recent decade (2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015 being drought years) and the severity of their impact makes drought prediction an inherent component of forecasts for drought mitigation and preparedness. The research and development activities cannot prove their full potential unless they can produce a long lead skillful prediction of extreme conditions like flood or drought. During 2014 and 2015, India experienced deficit monsoon for two successive years. The present study explores the various factors responsible for the droughts during 2014 and 2015 and how well the state-of-the-art coupled model capture the consecutive droughts. The study shows that not only tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but also extratropical SSTs can influence the rainfall over India. Extratropical SSTs impacted the rainfall during 2014 by modulating the strength and location of subtropical jet and tropospheric temperature gradient. On the other hand, tropical SSTs over Pacific Ocean influenced the rainfall during 2015 by modulating the atmospheric teleconnections via Walker circulation. The present-day models considered in this study could not capture consecutively the Indian monsoon droughts and the associated atmosphere and ocean conditions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alves O, Balmaseda MA, Anderson D, Stockdale T (2004) Sensitivity of dynamical seasonal forecasts to ocean initial conditions. Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:647–667. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.25
Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO Karumuri Ashok •, Zhaoyong Toshio Yamagata technique. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013294
Balmaseda M, Anderson D (2009) Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill. Geophys Res Lett 36:1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035561
Bhalme HN, Mooley DA (1980) Large-scale droughts/ floods and monsoon circulation. Mon Weather Rev 108:1197–1211. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1197:LSDAMC>2.0.CO;2
Chattopadhyay R, Phani R, Sabeerali CT, Dhakate AR, Salunke KD, Mahapatra S, Rao AS, Goswami BN (2015) Influence of extratropical sea-surface temperature on the Indian summer monsoon: an unexplored source of seasonal predictability. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141:2760–2775. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2562
Doi T, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2016) Improved seasonal prediction using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 8:1847–1867. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000744
Doi T, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2019) Merits of a 108-member ensemble system in ENSO and IOD predictions. J Clim 32:957–972
Fernando DN, Mo KC, Fu R, Pu B, Bowerman A, Scanlon BR, Solis RS, Yin L, Mace RE, Mioduszewski JR, Ren T, Zhang K (2016) What caused the spring intensification and winter demise of the 2011 drought over Texas? Clim Dyn 47:3077–3090. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3014-x
Gadgil S, Gadgil S (2006) The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Econ Polit Wkly 41:4887–4889
George G, Rao DN, Sabeerali CT, Srivastava A, Rao SA (2016) Indian summer monsoon prediction and simulation in CFSv2 coupled model. Atmos Sci Lett 17:57–64. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.599
Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) ENSO control on the south Asian monsoon through the length of the rainy season. Geophys Res Lett 32:1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023216
Goswami BN, Madhusoodanan MS, Neema CP, Sengupta D (2006) A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 33:1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024803
Hahn DG, Shukla J, Hahn DG, Shukla J (1976) An apparent relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J Atmos Sci 33:2461–2462. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<2461:AARBES>2.0.CO;2
Hao Z, Singh VP, Xia Y (2018) Seasonal drought prediction: advances, challenges, and future prospects. Rev Geophys 56:108–141. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000549
Huang B, Banzon VF, Freeman E, Lawrimore J, Liu W, Peterson TC, Smith TM, Thorne PW, Woodruff SD, Zhang HM (2015) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. J Clim 28:911–930. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1
Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Morrissey MM et al (2001) Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multisatellite observations. J Hydrometeorol 2:36–50. https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0036:GPAODD>2.0.CO;2
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
Kirtman BP, Min D, Infanti JM, Kinter III JL, Paolino DA, Zhang Q, Van Den Dool H, Saha S, Mendez MP, Becker E, Peng P (2014) The North American multimodel ensemble: phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 toward developing intraseasonal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(4):585–601
Krishnamurthy V, Ajayamohan RS (2010) Composite structure of monsoon low pressure systems and its relation to Indian rainfall. J Clim 23:4285–4305. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2953.1
Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling M et al (2006) Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño. Science (New York, NY) 314:115–119. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1131152
Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera S, Shingu S, Yamagata T (2005) Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J Clim 18:4474–4497. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3526.1
Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2008) Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 21:84–93. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1412.1
Min Q, Su J, Zhang R, Rong X (2015) What hindered the El Niño pattern in 2014? Geophys Res Lett 42:6762–6770. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064899
Niranjan KK, Rajeevan M, Pai DS et al (2013) On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India. Weath Clim Extrem 1:42–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.006
Pai DS, Suryachandra Rao A, Senroy S et al (2017) Performance of the operational and experimental long-range forecasts for the 2015 southwest monsoon rainfall. Curr Sci 112:68–75. https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v112/i01/68-75
Parthasarathy B (1984) Interannual and long-term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Proc Indian Acad Sci - Eart Planet Sci 93:371–385. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02843255
Pillai PA, Rao SA et al (2018) Potential predictability and actual skill of Boreal Summer Tropical SST and Indian summer monsoon rainfall in CFSv2-T382. Rolef Init SST Ttelecon 51:493–510. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3936-y
Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91:296–306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-007-0019-1
Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Preethi B (2012) Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 38:2257–2274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1061-x
Ramu DA, Sabeerali CT, Chattopadhyay R, Rao DN, George G, Dhakate AR, Salunke K, Srivastava A, Rao SA (2016) Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction skill in the CFSv2 coupled model: Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution. J Geophys Res-Atmos 121:2205–2221. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024629
Rao SA, Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Goswami BN (2010) Unusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008: role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 23:5163–5174. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3257.1
Rao SA, Goswami BN, Sahai AK, Rajagopal EN, Mukhopadhyay P, Rajeevan M, Nayak S, Rathore LS, Shenoi SSC, Ramesh KJ, Nanjundiah RS, Ravichandran M, Mitra AK, Pai DS, Bhowmik SKR, Hazra A, Mahapatra S, Saha SK, Chaudhari HS, Joseph S, Sreenivas P, Pokhrel S, Pillai PA, Chattopadhyay R, Deshpande M, Krishna RPM, Das RS, Prasad VS, Abhilash S, Panickal S, Krishnan R, Kumar S, Ramu DA, Reddy SS, Arora A, Goswami T, Rai A, Srivastava A, Pradhan M, Tirkey S, Ganai M, Mandal R, Dey A, Sarkar S, Malviya S, Dhakate A, Salunke K, Maini P (2019) Monsoon mission: a targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 100:2509–2532
Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363. https://doi.org/10.1038/43854
Santoso A, Mcphaden MJ, Cai W (2017) The defining characteristics of ENSO extremes and the strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Rev Geophys 55:1079–1129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560
Schubert SD, Stewart RE, Wang H, Barlow M, Berbery EH, Cai W, Hoerling MP, Kanikicharla KK, Koster RD, Lyon B, Mariotti A, Mechoso CR, Müller OV, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Seager R, Seneviratne SI, Zhang L, Zhou T (2016) Global meteorological drought: a synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits. J Clim 29:3989–4019. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0452.1
Shukla S, Sheffield J, Wood EF, Lettenmaier DP (2013) On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:2781–2796. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2781-2013
Soman MK, Slingo J (1997) Sensitivity of the asian summer monsoon to aspects of sea‐surface‐temperature anomalies in the tropical pacific ocean. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 123(538):309–336
Srivastava A, Pradhan M, Goswami BN, Rao SA (2017a) Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability. Meteorog Atmos Phys 131:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0565-2
Srivastava A, Rao SA, Rao DN, George G, Pradhan M (2017b) Structure, characteristics, and simulation of monsoon low-pressure systems in CFSv2 coupled model. J Geophys Res Oceans 122:6394–6415. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012322
Varikoden H, Revadekar JV, Choudhary Y, Preethi B (2015) Droughts of Indian summer monsoon associated with El Niño and Non-El Niño years. Int J Climatol 35:1916–1925. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4097
Wang B, Ding Q, Fu X et al (2005) Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15711. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022734
Wang B, Xiang B, Li J, Webster PJ, Rajeevan MN, Liu J, Ha KJ (2015) Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming. Nat Commun 6:7154. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8154
Wang S, Yuan X, Li Y (2017) Does a strong El Niño imply a higher predictability of extreme drought? Sci Rep 7:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40741
Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 118(507):877–926
Acknowledgments
We appreciate the effort of the editor and anonymous reviewer(s) for their constructive feedbacks, which helped to improve the manuscript. We would like to thank International Research Institute (IRI) for hosting the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) model data along with the probabilistic forecasts from dynamical and statistical models. We would also like to thank Dr. Takeshi Doi and Dr. Swadhin Behera for sharing the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier (SINTEX-F)2 model data under Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC).
Funding
Not applicable.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design of manuscript. Dr. Suryachandra Rao conceptualized the study. Data is made available for analysis by Mr. Ankur Srivastava. Analysis, figure, and manuscript are prepared by Mr. Maheswar Pradhan. Mr. Maheswar Pradhan and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors helped in proof reading of the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pradhan, M., Rao, S.A. & Srivastava, A. Factors responsible for consecutive deficit Indian monsoons during 2014 and 2015. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 1473–1486 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03486-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03486-9