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Synergistic effects of climatic factors and drought on maize yield in the east of Northwest China against the background of climate change

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Abstract

Climate change affects maize production in the east of Northwest China (ENC). Based on the meteorological data, maize growth phase data, and yield data in the ENC, spatial clustering and mixed linear models were used to evaluate the effects of climatic factors and drought on maize yield. The results showed that under the background of climate change, the sowing time was earlier, the maize development phase was shorter, the mid-season was longer, and whole growth duration increased, and the planting boundary moved further northward and expanded westward. In the whole growth duration, the temperature increased and the effective precipitation (Peff) decreased. Drought increased in the initial and late season of maize growth. Maize yield was selected as an attribute element for spatial clustering, and the ENC was divided into high–high cluster (HH), low–low cluster (LL), and high–low outlier (HL) areas. In the HH area, in any growth stage, the Peff reduction and drought stress reduced the maize yield; in the initial phase, increased temperature and decreased radiation increased maize yield; in the mid-season phase, increased temperature reduced maize yield. In the LL area, increased temperature in the initial and late season phases and the decreased temperature in the development phase were conducive to the formation of maize yield; the increase of Peff in the mid-season phase and its decrease in the late season phases increased maize yield; drought mainly affected the maize development phase. In the HL area, increased temperature in the development phase and decreased temperature in the mid-season phase increased maize yield; the Peff had a positive effect on the yield, mainly affecting the development and late season phases of maize; drought stress mainly affected the initial, development, and mid-season phases of maize. These new scientific discoveries are significant for maize production management in the ENC.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the China Crop Farming Information Network of the Ministry of Agriculture, which provided the maize planting data. The authors also thank the many students at Lanzhou University who provided assistance with data management. Finally, the authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

Funding

This study is financially supported by the NSFC (National Natural Science Foundation of China) (Grant Nos. 41605089 and 41630426), the innovation team from the Institute of Arid Meteorology (Team No. GHSCXTD-2020-2), and the Arid Meteorological Science Research Foundation of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. IAM201802, IAM201806).

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  1. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, 2070 East Donggang Road, Lanzhou, 730020, Gansu, China

    Ying Wang & Qiang Zhang

  2. School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Lanzhou City University, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Chao Wang

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  1. Ying Wang
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Correspondence to Qiang Zhang.

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Wang, Y., Wang, C. & Zhang, Q. Synergistic effects of climatic factors and drought on maize yield in the east of Northwest China against the background of climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 1017–1033 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03457-0

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