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El Nino/La Nina impact on crop production over different agro-climatic zones of Indo-Gangetic Plain of India

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Abstract

Estimates of fluctuation in climatic condition have a large impact on the production of selected crops such as rice (Oryza sativa), wheat (Triticum aestivum), maize (Zea mays), pulse, and sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) which are the most prominent crops over Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). The influence of El Nino/La Nina on monsoon rainfall directly or indirectly affects the Indian crop over the Agro-Climatic Zones of Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The detailed analysis has been carried out to show the impact of El Nino/La Nina and its association with crop production over sub-regions of IGP (lower, middle, upper, and trans IGP) during 1966–2009. During El Nino years, the production and yield of Rice and sugarcane have been affected in the middle and upper regions of IGP. The production of wheat decreased during La Nina events in the middle regions of IGP. The rice production has been severely affected by El Nino events over middle and upper IGP regions whereas wheat production increased. The decrease in maize production is observed in the upper and trans regions of IGP during El Nino. Pulse production decreased mainly in the middle, upper, and trans IGP during both events. The sugarcane production was highly affected during La Nina events overall sub-regions of IGP. The correlations among crop production, monsoon rainfall, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of Nino 3.4 region during monsoon season are very insignificant during El Nino events. On other hand, La Nina event shows significant correlation over IGP. It has been noticed that on many occasions, deficit rainfall over IGP during summer monsoon season was responsible for decrease in crop production. Hence, alteration in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and sea surface temperature modulation of Nino 3.4 might have caused increase/decrease in the production of the crop.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank International Crops Research Institute in Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT-IN) for providing crop data and NOAA, Climate Prediction Centre for SST data. The authors also wish to thank Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune for necessary rainfall data.

Funding

The two authors (RB, SV) received financial support from the Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi, in the form of Centre of Excellence in Climate Change.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    R. Bhatla, Shruti Verma & Soumik Ghosh

  2. DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    R. Bhatla

  3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Priyanka Varma

  4. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA

    Soumik Ghosh

Authors
  1. R. Bhatla
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  2. Priyanka Varma
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  3. Shruti Verma
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  4. Soumik Ghosh
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Correspondence to R. Bhatla.

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Bhatla, R., Varma, P., Verma, S. et al. El Nino/La Nina impact on crop production over different agro-climatic zones of Indo-Gangetic Plain of India. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 151–163 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03284-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03284-3