Abstract
Global mean temperature is continuously rising and causing changes in the extreme climatic events. Following these changes, climate extremes—the rare events that reside in the tail of the distribution of essential climate variables—are expected to be further intensified, more frequent, and prolonged. Changes in extremes would vary spatially from region to region and thus need regional assessment for future adaptation planning. This study assesses the climate extremes at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of global warming over Bangladesh which is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Future changes in climate extremes are assessed using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices devised by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Projections from high-resolution regional climate model ensembles are used to derive extreme climate indices. Our analysis shows overall upward changes in warm indices and downward changes in cold indices at higher specific warming levels. We found a much higher increase in extreme rainfall compared with the annual total rainfall. Increasing variability of rainfall indices is found at higher specific warming levels. Our analysis also suggests a higher increase of temperature during the winter and post-monsoon seasons, as well as an increase in the 1-day and 5-day maximum rainfall during pre- and post-monsoon seasons. A significant regional difference is found in almost all the rainfall indices. The forecasted increase of extreme rainfall and consecutive dry days (CDD) over the northeast region indicates a possibility of an increase of flash floods in the future. Moreover, the increase in the extreme rainfall over the southeast region will increase the chances of landslides.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ahmed B (2014) Landslide susceptibility mapping using multi-criteria evaluation techniques in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh. Landslides, Springer Nature 12:1077–1095
Basher MA, Stiller-Reeve MA, Islam AKMS, Bremer S (2017) Assessing climatic trends of extreme rainfall indices over northeast Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 134:441–452. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2285-4
Becker RA, Chambers JM, Wilks AR (1988) The new S language. Wadsworth & Brooks, Pacific Grove
Boer GJ, Lambert SJ (2001) Second-order space-time climate difference statistics. Clim Dyn 17(2–3):213–218
Booth BB, Harris GR, Murphy JM, House JI, Jones CD, Sexton D, Sitch S (2017) Narrowing the range of future climate projections using historical observations of atmospheric CO2. J Clim 30(8):3039–3053
Boucher O, Bellassen V, Benveniste H, Ciais P, Criqui P, Guivarch C, Treut HL, Mathy S, Séférian R (2016) Opinion: in the wake of Paris Agreement, scientists must embrace new directions for climate change research. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113:7287–7290
Bürger G, Murdock TQ, Werner AT, Sobie SR, Cannon AJ (2012) Downscaling extremes-an intercomparison of multiple statistical methods for present climate. J Clim Am Meteorol Soc 25:4366–4388
Chen J, Gao C, Zeng X, Xiong M, Wang Y, Jing C, Krysanova V, Huang J, Zhao N, Su B (2017) Assessing changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin: approach by using multiple- GCMs and hydrological models. Quat Int, Elsevier BV 453:63–73
Fahad MGR, Saiful Islam AKM, Nazari R, Alfi Hasan M, Tarekul Islam GM, Bala SK (2017) Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias-corrected multi-model ensemble projections considering high-emission pathways. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5284
Frank S, Havlík P, Soussana JF, Levesque A, Valin H, Wollenberg E et al (2017) Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security? Environ Res Lett 12(10):105004
Friedlingstein P, Andrew RM, Rogelj J, Peters GP, Canadell JG, Knutti R et al (2014) Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets. Nat Geosci 7(10):709–715
Grillakis MG, Koutroulis AG, Tsanis IK (2013) Multisegment statistical bias correction of daily GCM precipitation output. J Geophys Res-Atmos 118(8):3150–3162
Gu H, Yu Z, Yang C, Ju Q, Yang T, Zhang D (2018) High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 22(5):3087
Hulme M (2016) 1.5 C and climate research after the Paris Agreement. Nat Clim Chang, Springer Nature 6:222–224
IPCC 2019 Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pörtner HO, Roberts D, Skea J, Shukla PR, Pirani A, Moufouma-Okia W, Péan C, Pidcock R, Connors S, Matthews JBR, Chen Y, Zhou X, Gomis MI, Lonnoy E, Maycock T, Tignor M, Waterfield T (eds.)
Islam N, Uyeda H, Ferdousi N, Abdullah S (2009) Understanding the rainfall climatology and detection of extreme weather events in the SAARC region part II utilization of RCM data. A collaborative research project between Synoptic Division of SMRC and HyARC of Nagoya University. Dhaka. SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC)
Khan MJU, Islam AS, Das MK, Mohammed K, Bala SK, Islam GT (2019) Observed trends in climate extremes over Bangladesh from 1981 to 2010. Clim Res 77(1):45–61
Khatun MA, Rashid MB, Hygen HO (2016) MET report: climate of Bangladesh. Norwegian meteorological institute, (08)
King AD, Karoly DJ, Henley BJ (2017) Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. Nat Clim Chang, Springer Nature 7:412–416
Lehner F, Coats S, Stocker TF, Pendergrass AG, Sanderson BM, Raible CC, Smerdon JE (2017) Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates. Geophys Res Lett, Wiley-Blackwell 44:7419–7428
Mohammed K, Islam AS, Islam GT, Alfieri L, Bala SK, Khan, MJU (2017) Extreme flows and water availability of the Brahmaputra River under 1.5 and 2 C global warming scenarios. Clim Change 145(1–2):159–175
Nowreen S et al (2012) An indicator of climate change in the south west region of Bangladesh. Int J Clim Chang Impacts Response 4(3):47–60
Nowreen S, Murshed SB, Islam AKMS, Bhaskaran B, Hasan MA (2014) Changes of rainfall extremes around the haor basin areas of Bangladesh using multi-member ensemble RCM. Theor Appl Climatol, Springer Nature 119:363–377
Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P, Jackson RB, Korsbakken JI et al (2020) Carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow amidst slowly emerging climate policies. Nat Clim Chang 10(1):3–6
Piontek F, Müller C, Pugh TAM, Clark DB, Deryng D, Elliott J, de Jesus Colón González F, Flörke M, Folberth C, Franssen W, Frieler K, Friend AD, Gosling SN, Hemming D, Khabarov N, Kim H, Lomas MR, Masaki Y, Mengel M, Morse A, Neumann K, Nishina K, Ostberg S, Pavlick R, Ruane AC, Schewe J, Schmid E, Stacke T, Tang Q, Tessler ZD, Tompkins AM, Warszawski L, Wisser D, Schellnhuber HJ (2013) Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:3233–3238
Roy B, Islam AS, Islam GT, Khan MJU, Bhattacharya B, Ali MH, Khan AS, Hossain MS, Sarker GC, Pieu NM (2019) Frequency analysis of flash floods for establishing new danger levels for the rivers in the northeast haor region of Bangladesh. J Hydrol Eng 24(4):05019004
Schleussner C-F, Rogelj J, Schaeffer M, Lissner T, Licker R, Fischer EM, Knutti R, Levermann A, Frieler K, Hare W (2016) Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nat Clim Chang, Springer Nature 6:827–835
Shahid S (2009) Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969–2003. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 45:375–389
Shahid S (2011) Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 104(3–4):489–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0363-y
Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos, Wiley-Blackwell 118:2473–2493
SMRC (2009) Understanding the rainfall climatology and detection of extreme weather events in the SAARC region: Part II- Utilization of RCM data. SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds JA, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Weyant J (2011) A special issue on the RCPs. Clim Change 109(1–2):1
Weedon GP, Balsamo G, Bellouin N, Gomes S, Best MJ, Viterbo P (2014) The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Water Resour Res, Wiley Online Library 50:7505–7514
Zaman AM, Molla MK, Pervin IA, Rahman SM, Haider AS, Ludwig F, Franssen W (2017) Impacts on river systems under 2 C warming: Bangladesh Case Study. Clim Serv 7:96–114
Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0) user manual. Climate Research Branch Environment Canada, 22
Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang, Wiley-Blackwell 2:851–870
Funding
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 603864 (HELIX: High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes; http://www.helixclimate.eu).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Khan, M.J.U., Islam, A.K.M.S., Bala, S.K. et al. Changes in climate extremes over Bangladesh at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of global warming with high-resolution regional climate modeling. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 1451–1466 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03164-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03164-w