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Spatial and temporal variations in soil temperatures over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2017 based on reanalysis products

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Abstract

A change in soil temperature (ST) is a significant indicator of climate change, so understanding the variations in ST is required for studying the changes of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) permafrost. We investigated the performance of three reanalysis ST products at three soil depths (0–10 cm, 10–40 cm, and 40–100 cm) on the permafrost regions of the QTP: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the second version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFSv2), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our results indicate that all three reanalysis ST products underestimate observations with negative mean bias error values at all three soil layers. The MERRA-2 product performed best in the first and second soil layers, and the ERA-Interim product performed best in the third soil layer. The spatiotemporal changes of annual and seasonal STs on the QTP from 1980 to 2017 were investigated using Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall test. There was an increasing trend of ST in the deeper soil layer, which was less than that of the shallow soil layers in the spring and summer as well as annually. In contrast, the first-layer ST warming rate was significantly lower than that of the deeper soil layers in the autumn and winter. The significantly (P < 0.01) increasing trend of the annual ST indicates that the QTP has experienced climate warming during the past 38 years, which is one of the factors promoting permafrost degradation of the QTP.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Environmental Modeling Center at National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center for providing the reanalysis datasets for this study. The authors also thank the Cryosphere Research Station on Qinghai–Xizang Plateau, the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences for providing the observations for this study. Finally, we thank the reviewers, whose comments and suggestions helped improve the paper substantially. We also thank LetPub (www.letpub.com) for its linguistic assistance during the preparation of this manuscript.

Funding

This work was jointly supported by the State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science (grant number SKLCS-OP-2019-06); the Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province (grant number 2019GGX101064); the Open Fund of Innovation Institute for Sustainable Maritime Architecture Research and Technology, Qingdao University of Technology (grant number 201812007); and the Lixian Scholar Project of Qingdao University of Technology.

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  1. iSMART, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, 266033, China

    Yanhui Qin, Wenfeng Liu, Zonghe Guo & Shanbin Xue

  2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources (NIEER), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Yanhui Qin

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Qin, Y., Liu, W., Guo, Z. et al. Spatial and temporal variations in soil temperatures over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2017 based on reanalysis products. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 1055–1069 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03149-9

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