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Identification of the trends associated with the SPI and SPEI indices across Ankara, Turkey

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Abstract

This study investigates the main characteristics (duration, severity, and trend) of meteorological drought events over Ankara Province, Turkey. We used 46 years of observed monthly precipitation and temperature series from six meteorological stations distributed across the study area to derive the well-known meteorological drought indices; the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) both in 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. A comparative analysis between the indices, associated drought events, and potential trends at each station are presented. To explore the drought trends in each station, the well-documented Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient, innovative Şen’s method, and innovative trend analysis are applied. The results showed that the province faced five extreme drought events during the period of 1971–2016, although temporal inconsistencies between the SPI and SPEI, particularly in 6- and 12-month timescales exist. Considering the SPEI, the results indicated a slight descending trend in the observed drought events; however, the SPI does not conform to the same pattern.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the Turkish General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) for providing the database used in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Antalya Bilim University, Antalya, Turkey

    Ali Danandeh Mehr

  2. Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Civil Engineering Department, Bursa Technical University, Bursa, Turkey

    Babak Vaheddoost

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  1. Ali Danandeh Mehr
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  2. Babak Vaheddoost
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Correspondence to Ali Danandeh Mehr.

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Danandeh Mehr, A., Vaheddoost, B. Identification of the trends associated with the SPI and SPEI indices across Ankara, Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 139, 1531–1542 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03071-9

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