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Effects of future climate change on summer maize growth in Shijin Irrigation District

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Abstract

The paper selected Shijin Irrigation District as the study area. Considering the future climate change, the paper studied the effects of climate change on summer maize growth. The effects of climate change on summer maize yield were quantitatively analyzed by combining the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and AquaCrop model. The results showed that under the RCP4.5 scenario, the future yield of summer maize in Shijin Irrigation District was mainly reduced, but the yield change showed an upward trend. When the direct impact of CO2 is not considered, the yield change ranged from − 6.72~− 3.04%, and the deforestation rate of summer maize is 10.795 kg for every 1 °C increase in growth period. The increase of summer maize is 3.35 kg for every 1 mm increase in rainfall. When considering the direct impact of CO2, the yield change ranged from − 4.04~+ 0.11%. It can be seen that CO2 can compensate for the production reduction effect caused by rising temperature.

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Funding

This study received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 51879181, 51579169) and the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant no. 2016YFC0401407).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, People’s Republic of China

    Fawen Li, Yang Liu & Wenhui Yan

  2. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resource and Hydro-power Research, Beijing, 100038, People’s Republic of China

    Yong Zhao

  3. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrologic Engineering in Northwest in the Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, Shanxi, China

    Rengui Jiang

Authors
  1. Fawen Li
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  2. Yang Liu
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  3. Wenhui Yan
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  4. Yong Zhao
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  5. Rengui Jiang
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Correspondence to Fawen Li or Yong Zhao.

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Li, F., Liu, Y., Yan, W. et al. Effects of future climate change on summer maize growth in Shijin Irrigation District. Theor Appl Climatol 139, 33–44 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02956-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02956-z

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