Temporal evolution of precipitation-based climate change indices across India: contrast between pre- and post-1975 features

Abstract

Over the past century, extreme precipitation events have posed many problems on socio-economic status of India, a country that spans over a wide variety of climate regimes. Assessment of past changes in precipitation associated climate change indicators is very essential for effective management of the hydroclimatic risks. Present study evaluates spatio-temporal variation of eleven precipitation-based climate change indices over three 35-year epochs, i.e., 1906–1940, 1941–1975, and 1976–2010. The analysis is undertaken with the annual and monsoon season (June–September) daily precipitation data separately. Regions of significant changes are identified across the country, reflecting different characteristics (magnitude, frequency, intensity, and duration) of precipitation-based climate change indices. The results indicate a clear temporal evolution in the spatial distribution of trends over the years. During the recent epoch (1976–2010), a split is noticed with segregated increasing trends in southern region and patches of decreasing trends in northern region of the country. In contrast to the indices derived with monsoonal daily precipitation, significant trends over the country were more prominent for the indices derived with annual daily precipitation. Duration of annual maximum dry spell (wet spell) is found to significantly increase (decrease) over most of the regions. However, there is no change in total precipitation indicating an increase in short spell heavy rainfall events. The analysis and the results offer an opportunity to identify the regions of interest and to adopt revised water management policies in the future through revised water allocations, alteration of cropping pattern, etc.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

References

  1. Aggarwal P (2008) Global climate change and Indian agriculture: impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Indian J Agric Sci 78(10):911–919

    Google Scholar 

  2. Ali H, Mishra V, Pai DS (2014) Observed and projected urban extreme rainfall events in India. J Geophys Res Atmos 119(22):12621–12641. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Dash SK, Kulkarni MA, Mohanty UC, Prasad K (2009) Changes in the characteristics of rain events in India. J Geophys Res Atmos 114(D10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010572

  4. Deshpande NR, Kothawale DR, Kulkarni A (2016) Changes in climate extremes over major river basins of India. Int J Climatol 36:4548–4559. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Ghosh S, Das D, Kao SC, Ganguly AR (2012) Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nat Clim Chang 2:86–91. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sangupta D et al (2006) Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314(5804):1442–1445. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Goyal MK, Burn DH, Ojha CSP (2012) Evaluation of machine learning tools as a statistical downscaling tool: temperatures projections for multi-stations for Thames River Basin, Canada. Theor Appl Climatol 108(3-4):519–534. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0546-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Guhathakurta P, Sreejith OP, Menon PA (2011) Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. J Earth Syst Sci 120:359–373. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-011-0082-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Heidinger H, Carvalho L, Jones C, Posadas A, Quiroz R (2018) A new assessment in total and extreme rainfall trends over central and southern Peruvian Andes during 1965–2010. Int J Climatol 38(S1):e998–e1015. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5427

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation measures, vol 202. Charles Griffin, London, p 15

    Google Scholar 

  11. Klein Tank AMG, Peterson TC, Quadir DA, Dorji S, Zou X, Tang H, Santhosh K, Joshi UR, Jaswal AK, Kolli RK, Sikder AB, Deshpande NR, Revadekar JV, Yeleuova K, Vandasheva S, Faleyeva M, Gomboluudev P, Budhathoki KP, Hussain A, Afzaal M, Chandrapala L, Anvar H, Amanmurad D, Asanova VS, Jones PD, New MG, Spektorman T (2006) Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia. J Geophys Res 111(D16):105. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Krishnamurthy CKB, Lall U, Kwon HH (2009) Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J Clim 22(18):4737–4746. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2896.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Li X, Wang X, Babovic V (2018) Analysis of variability and trends of precipitation extremes in Singapore during 1980–2013. Int J Climatol 38(1):125–141. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Mahdi SS, Dhekale BS, Choudhury SR, Bangroo SA (2015) Review article on the climate risks in crop production and management in India: a review. Aust J Crop Sci 9(7):585–595

    Google Scholar 

  15. Maity R (2018) Statistical methods in hydrology and hydroclimatology

    Google Scholar 

  16. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Muluneh A, Bewket W, Keesstra S, Stroosnijder L (2017) Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Theor Appl Clim 128(3-4):795–809. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1739-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Ongoma V, Chen H, Omony GW (2018) Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda. Theor Appl Climatol 131(1-2):295–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1973-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Pai DS, Sridhar L, Rajeevan M et al (2013) Development and analysis of a daily gridded rainfall data set over India. NCC RESEARCH REPORT

  20. Panda DK, Panigrahi P, Mohanty S, Mohanty RK, Sethi RR (2016) The 20th century transitions in basic and extreme monsoon rainfall indices in India: comparison of the ETCCDI indices. Atmos Res 181:220–235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.07.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Pichuka S, Prasad RR, Maity R, Kunstmann H (2017) Development of a method to identify change in the pattern of extreme streamflow events in future climate: application on the Bhadra reservoir inflow in India. J Hydrol Reg Stud 9:236–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.12.084

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Preethi B, Revadekar JV, Munot AA (2011) Extremes in summer monsoon precipitation over India during 2001–2009 using CPC high-resolution data. Int J Remote Sens 32:717–735. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2010.517795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Roxy MK, Ghosh S, Pathak A, Athulya R, Mujumdar M, Murtugudde R, Terray P, Rajeevan M (2017) A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India. Nat Commun 8:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Sabeerali CT, Rao SA, Ajayamohan RS, Murtugudde R (2012) On the relationship between Indian summer monsoon withdrawal and Indo-Pacific SST anomalies before and after 1976/1977 climate shift. Clim Dyn 39(3):841–859. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1269-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Sahana AS, Ghosh S, Ganguly A, Murtugudde R (2015) Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977. Environ Res Lett 10(5):054006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Sharma PJ, Loliyana VD, R SR et al (2017) Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India. Theor Appl Climatol 134:1329–1354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2343-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Shrestha AB, Bajracharya SR, Sharma AR, Duo C, Kulkarni A (2017) Observed trends and changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over the Koshi river basin 1975–2010. Int J Climatol 37:1066–1083. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4761

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Singh D, Tsiang M, Rajaratnam B, Diffenbaugh NS (2014) Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the south Asian summer monsoon season. Nat Clim Chang 4:456–461. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Singh M (2012) Challenges and opportunities for sustainable viability of marginal and small farmers in India. Agric Situat India 3:133–142

    Google Scholar 

  30. Sinha Ray KC, Srivastava AK (2000) Is there any change in extreme events like drought and heavy rainfall? Curr Sci 79(2):155–158

    Google Scholar 

  31. Sonar RB (2014) Observed trends and variations in rainfall events over Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) during southwest monsoon season. Mausam 65(2):171–178

    Google Scholar 

  32. Subash N, Singh SS, Priya N (2011) Extreme rainfall indices and its impact on rice productivity-a case study over sub-humid climatic environment. Agric Water Manag 98:1373–1387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2011.04.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Tabari H, Marofi S, Ahmadi M (2011) Long-term variations of water quality parameters in the Maroon River, Iran. Environ Monit Assess 177:273–287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-010-1633-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Vinnarasi R, Dhanya CT (2016) Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:2146–2160. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim Chang 2:851–870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rajib Maity.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Dash, S., Maity, R. Temporal evolution of precipitation-based climate change indices across India: contrast between pre- and post-1975 features. Theor Appl Climatol 138, 1667–1678 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02923-8

Download citation